La Liga
Vallecano vs 
Espanol Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 68.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 84.3% for over 2.5 to 34.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. Between the two sides, Espanol are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 18.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 34.3% | 65.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.3%
38.4%
70.6%
45.7%
Card handicap
| Vallecano line | Vallecano | Espanol |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.5% | 79.5% |
| -0.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| +0.5 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| +1.5 | 71.3% | 28.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.3% | 42.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Vallecano cards per game14.2Vallecano fouls per game3.4Espanol cards per game18.2Espanol fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Vallecano vs Espanol. It tips Espanol for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
68.9%Over 3.5 cards21.0%Any red card64.3%Vallecano over 1.5 cards70.6%Espanol over 1.5 cards70.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Vallecano over 1.5 cards sits at 64.3% and Espanol at 70.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.0% (Vallecano 13.9%, Espanol 8.2%). This season Vallecano have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Espanol 3.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Vallecano vs Espanol?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 68.9% for Vallecano vs Espanol.
Will there be a red card in Vallecano vs Espanol?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Vallecano vs Espanol?
Before kickoff, the model rated Espanol to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 18.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,111 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
