La Liga
Vallecano vs 
Espanol Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 53.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.8% for over 22.5 to 29.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.4%. Between the two sides, Vallecano are the model’s pick to have more shots at 67.8%, with a level count at 5.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.7% | 70.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.1%
63.0%
46.8%
51.1%
33.0%
19.1%
Shot handicap
| Vallecano line | Vallecano | Espanol |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| -2.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| -0.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| +0.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 45.4% | 54.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
4.6 / 7.4
5.2 / 5.4
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
This season (2026/27)
11.8Vallecano shots per game17.4Vallecano shots faced per game4.6Vallecano first-half shots7.4Vallecano second-half shots10.6Espanol shots per game11.8Espanol shots faced per game5.2Espanol first-half shots5.4Espanol second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Vallecano.
In-depth analysis
53.4%Over 24.5 shots63.0%Vallecano over 12.5 shots33.0%Espanol over 12.5 shots69.6%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Vallecano over 12.5 shots sits at 63.0% and Espanol at 33.0%. This season Vallecano have averaged 11.8 shots a game and Espanol 10.6. Vallecano take 4.6 shots before half-time and 7.4 after, Espanol 5.2 and 5.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Vallecano vs Espanol?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 53.4% for Vallecano vs Espanol.
Which team will have more shots in Vallecano vs Espanol?
The model rates Vallecano to take more shots at 67.8%.
Do Vallecano shoot more in the first or second half?
Vallecano average 4.6 shots before half-time and 7.4 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,899 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.