Vallecano vs Espanol prediction & probabilities (2026-09-15)

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Vallecano vs Espanol: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

La Liga
Vallecano

LDLWL

Tue, 15 Sep 202618:00UK
Espanol

WLLDW

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Vallecano or draw

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedTrust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
VallecanoWin probability
48.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Vallecano or draw74.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Over 8.5 corners62.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.59

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Vallecano: 48% is the model's line for this La Liga meeting on 15 September 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Vallecano than the market (41%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 50% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. Sergio Camello drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Vallecano against W2 D2 L2 for Espanol. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Vallecano, 0 draws and 4 for Espanol at 2.4 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.8%@ 2.39
Over 11.5 corners32.3%@ 3.10
Medium risk

Both teams to score53.5%@ 1.87
Over 9.5 corners52.1%@ 1.92
Draw or Espanol51.8%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.02
1-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.78
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.67

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Vallecano

48.2%+6.9%

Draw

25.9%-2.5%

Espanol

25.9%-4.4%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes53.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.1%

Good chance

Over 10.541.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersVallecano57.8%Espanol31.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.4%

Good chance

Over 26.541.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.7%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Vallecano12.3 taken17.7 faced
Espanol11.7 taken11.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Vallecano (5 games)

4.6 / 7.4

Espanol (5 games)

5.2 / 5.4

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.3%2.550.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Form & head-to-head

VallecanoLDLWL
EspanolWLLDW

Last 5 meetings: Vallecano 1 · 0 draws · Espanol 4 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-04-23Vallecano 1-0 Espanol
2025-12-07Espanol 1-0 Vallecano
2025-04-04Vallecano 0-4 Espanol
2024-08-31Espanol 2-1 Vallecano
2023-05-21Vallecano 1-2 Espanol

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

VallecanoEspanol
League position#16 of 20#8 of 20
Record W-D-L1-1-32-1-2
Current streakL1W1
Points per game0.801.40
Record, home vs away1-1-01-0-1
Goals scored per game1.601.60
Goals conceded per game2.801.00
1st half goals per game0.801.20
2nd half goals per game0.800.40
Corners won per game6.01.4
Cards per game2.43.4
Fouls per game14.218.2
Red cards this season20
Shots per game11.810.6
Shots faced per game17.411.8
Shots on target per game5.63.6
1st half shots per game4.65.2
2nd half shots per game7.45.4
xG for per game1.191.44
xG against per game2.191.43
Over 2.5 rate

80.0%60.0%

BTTS rate

100.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%40.0%

Rates this season:VallecanoEspanol

League averages this season: 2.98 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Sergio CamelloVallecano · key player
To score24.5%

@ 4.08

1+ on target50.1%

@ 2.00

2+ shots45.0%

@ 2.22

Shots/90 2.98SoT/90 1.36Goals/90 0.55
Pere MillaEspanol · key player
To score16.7%

@ 5.99

1+ on target37.8%

@ 2.65

2+ shots36.9%

@ 2.71

Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.38
AlemãoVallecano · in form
To score12.4%

@ 8.06

1+ on target37.3%

@ 2.68

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 2.27SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.3
Roberto FernándezEspanol · in form
To score25.1%

@ 3.98

1+ on target43.9%

@ 2.28

2+ shots43.2%

@ 2.31

Shots/90 1.88SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.37
Randy NtekaVallecano · in form
To score15.5%

@ 6.45

1+ on target32.1%

@ 3.12

2+ shots21.3%

@ 4.69

Shots/90 1.89SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.37
Bryan ZaragozaEspanol · in form
To score4.0%

@ 25.00

1+ on target39.5%

@ 2.53

2+ shots39.1%

@ 2.56

Shots/90 1.99SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.06

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Vallecano win2.302.08
Draw3.303.86
Espanol win3.103.86
Over 2.5 goals1.952.00
Under 2.5 goals1.902.00

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Vallecano win2.09
Draw3.81
Espanol win3.87
Both teams to score1.87

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals1.99
Over 3.5 goals3.54
Vallecano most2.09
Espanol most3.87

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.86
Over 10.5 corners2.38
Vallecano most1.73
Espanol most3.14

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.19
Over 3.5 cards1.45
Over 4.5 cards1.96
Over 5.5 cards2.92
Vallecano most2.79
Espanol most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.25
Over 7.5 SoT1.44
Over 8.5 SoT1.74
Over 9.5 SoT2.20
Vallecano most1.45
Espanol most4.83

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.52
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.44
Over 28.5 shots3.37
Vallecano most1.48
Espanol most3.74

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23
Over 22.5 fouls1.42
Over 24.5 fouls1.75
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.8% Over 24.5 53.4% Over 26.5 41.0% Over 28.5 29.7%
Most: Vallecano 67.8% Most: Espanol 26.7%
Vallecano Over 13.2 54.9% Espanol Over 13.2 25.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.2% Over 7.5 69.6% Over 8.5 57.6% Over 9.5 45.4%
Most: Vallecano 69.1% Most: Espanol 20.7%
Vallecano Over 4.2 65.8% Espanol Over 4.2 29.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 84.3% Over 3.5 68.9% Over 4.5 51.1%
Most: Vallecano 35.9% Most: Espanol 45.9%
Vallecano Over 1.8 64.3% Espanol Over 1.8 70.6%

Vallecano: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Sergio Camello 2.98 1.36 0.55 50.1% 45.0% 24.5%
Alemão 2.27 1.06 0.3 37.3% 26.4% 12.4%
Randy Nteka 1.89 0.85 0.37 32.1% 21.3% 15.5%
Álvaro García 2.18 0.84 0.15 48.1% 50.7% 11.0%
Jorge De Frutos 2.02 0.79 0.26 46.5% 47.5% 18.6%

Espanol: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pere Milla 2.69 0.99 0.38 37.8% 36.9% 16.7%
Roberto Fernández 1.88 0.74 0.37 43.9% 43.2% 25.1%
Bryan Zaragoza 1.99 0.74 0.06 39.5% 39.1% 4.0%
Jofre Carreras 1.95 0.53 0.13 24.2% 27.1% 6.6%
Edu Expósito 1.61 0.44 0.02 28.2% 34.2% 1.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Vallecano clean sheet 33.1%
Espanol clean sheet 20.7%
Vallecano win to nil 25.6%
Espanol win to nil 13.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 47.9% draw 26.2% away 25.9%
double_chance
1X 74.1% 12 73.8% X2 52.1%
dnb
home 65.0% away 35.1%
btts
yes 53.5% no 46.5%
clean_sheet
home 33.3% away 20.7%
win_to_nil
home 25.9% away 13.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.8% home_by_2 14.7% home_by_3plus 10.5%
away_by_1 15.7% away_by_2 7.1% away_by_3plus 3.0%
correct_score
0-0 7.5% 0-1 7.0% 0-2 4.2%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.2% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 6.5%
1-3 2.4% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.5% 2-1 9.4% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.5% 3-1 5.0% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.8% 4-1 2.0% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.5% under_0.5 7.5% over_1.5 75.3%
under_1.5 24.7% over_2.5 50.1% under_2.5 49.9%
over_3.5 28.2% under_3.5 71.8% over_4.5 13.5%
under_4.5 86.5% over_5.5 5.6% under_5.5 94.4%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 79.3% under_0.5 20.7% over_1.5 46.9%
under_1.5 53.1% over_2.5 21.3% under_2.5 78.7%
team_away
over_0.5 66.7% under_0.5 33.3% over_1.5 30.0%
under_1.5 70.0% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
most
home 47.9% draw 26.2% away 25.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.5% away_+2.5 89.5% home_-1.5 25.2%
away_+1.5 74.8% home_-0.5 47.9% away_+0.5 52.1%
home_+0.5 74.1% away_-0.5 25.9% home_+1.5 89.8%
away_-1.5 10.2% home_+2.5 97.0% away_-2.5 3.0%
total_exact
exact_0 7.5% exact_1 17.2% exact_2 25.2%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 14.7% exact_5 7.9%
exact_6 3.6% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.3% draw 44.2% away 24.5%
total
over_0.5 66.5% under_0.5 33.5% over_1.5 29.8%
under_1.5 70.2% over_2.5 9.8% under_2.5 90.2%
btts
yes 17.6% no 82.4%
total_exact
exact_0 33.5% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 20.0%
exact_3 7.3% exact_4plus 2.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.2% draw 37.8% away 25.0%
total
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.2%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
btts
yes 25.1% no 74.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.1% H/D 4.7% H/A 1.6%
D/H 16.4% D/D 16.7% D/A 11.1%
A/H 2.5% A/D 5.2% A/A 16.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.6% under_7.5 23.4% over_8.5 65.7%
under_8.5 34.3% over_9.5 53.8% under_9.5 46.3%
over_10.5 41.9% under_10.5 58.1% over_11.5 31.2%
under_11.5 68.8% over_12.5 22.1% under_12.5 77.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.6% under_3.5 22.4% over_4.5 63.4%
under_4.5 36.6% over_5.5 48.3% under_5.5 51.7%
team_away
over_3.5 60.9% under_3.5 39.1% over_4.5 43.6%
under_4.5 56.4% over_5.5 28.7% under_5.5 71.3%
most
home 57.9% draw 10.2% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.2% away_+3.5 72.8% home_-1.5 47.2%
away_+1.5 52.8% home_-0.5 57.9% away_+0.5 42.1%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+1.5 77.1%
away_-1.5 22.9% home_+3.5 90.0% away_-3.5 10.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.8% under_22.5 34.2% over_24.5 53.4%
under_24.5 46.6% over_26.5 41.0% under_26.5 59.0%
over_28.5 29.7% under_28.5 70.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.1% under_10.5 21.9% over_12.5 63.0%
under_12.5 37.0% over_14.5 46.8% under_14.5 53.2%
team_away
over_10.5 51.1% under_10.5 48.9% over_12.5 33.0%
under_12.5 67.0% over_14.5 19.1% under_14.5 80.9%
most
home 67.8% draw 5.5% away 26.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 43.0% away_+4.5 57.0% home_-2.5 55.7%
away_+2.5 44.3% home_-0.5 67.8% away_+0.5 32.2%
home_+0.5 73.3% away_-0.5 26.7% home_+2.5 82.6%
away_-2.5 17.4% home_+4.5 89.6% away_-4.5 10.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.2% under_6.5 19.8% over_7.5 69.6%
under_7.5 30.4% over_8.5 57.6% under_8.5 42.4%
over_9.5 45.4% under_9.5 54.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 80.0% under_3.5 20.0% over_4.5 65.8%
under_4.5 34.2% over_5.5 50.2% under_5.5 49.8%
team_away
over_3.5 47.7% under_3.5 52.3% over_4.5 29.7%
under_4.5 70.3% over_5.5 16.6% under_5.5 83.4%
most
home 69.1% draw 10.2% away 20.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 44.8% away_+2.5 55.2% home_-0.5 69.1%
away_+0.5 30.9% home_+0.5 79.3% away_-0.5 20.7%
home_+2.5 92.7% away_-2.5 7.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 84.3% under_2.5 15.7% over_3.5 68.9%
under_3.5 31.1% over_4.5 51.1% under_4.5 48.9%
over_5.5 34.3% under_5.5 65.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 64.3% under_1.5 35.7% over_2.5 38.4%
under_2.5 61.6%
team_away
over_1.5 70.6% under_1.5 29.4% over_2.5 45.7%
under_2.5 54.3%
most
home 35.9% draw 18.3% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.5% away_+1.5 79.5% home_-0.5 35.9%
away_+0.5 64.1% home_+0.5 54.1% away_-0.5 45.9%
home_+1.5 71.3% away_-1.5 28.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 81.4% under_20.5 18.6% over_22.5 70.3%
under_22.5 29.7% over_24.5 57.3% under_24.5 42.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.5% under_9.5 21.5% over_11.5 60.9%
under_11.5 39.1% over_13.5 42.0% under_13.5 58.0%
team_away
over_9.5 78.7% under_9.5 21.3% over_11.5 61.1%
under_11.5 38.9% over_13.5 42.2% under_13.5 57.8%
most
home 46.5% draw 6.8% away 46.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.6% home_-0.5 46.5%
away_+0.5 53.5% home_+2.5 66.4% away_-2.5 33.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.0% no 79.0%
home
yes 13.9% no 86.1%
away
yes 8.2% no 91.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Vallecano predictions · Espanol predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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