AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Eredivisie
UtrechtUtrechtLWWDL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1119:00UK
NijmegenNijmegenDDDDL

Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined60.6%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined39.4%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards39.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Utrecht vs Nijmegen. The model leans toward Nijmegen for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 61.6% 38.4%
3.5 cards 39.4% 60.6%
4.5 cards 21.7% 78.3%
5.5 cards 10.5% 89.6%

Who picks up more cards

Utrecht
34.8%
Level
23.4%
Nijmegen
41.9%

Team cards lines

Utrecht

Over 1.5
44.5%
Over 2.5
19.4%

Nijmegen

Over 1.5
49.9%
Over 2.5
23.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Utrecht's; Nijmegen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Utrecht line Utrecht Nijmegen
-1.5 16.5% 83.5%
-0.5 34.8% 65.3%
+0.5 58.1% 41.9%
+1.5 78.4% 21.6%

Red card

Any red card7.7%
Utrecht red card2.3%
Nijmegen red card5.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 67.1% 32.9%
22.5 fouls 52.3% 47.7%
24.5 fouls 37.7% 62.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Utrecht J. Kooij 2 3.0 2.0
Nijmegen Allard Lindhout 2 3.5 1.5
Nijmegen S. Gozubuyuk 2 2.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

UtrechtUtrecht

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Utrecht at home and Nijmegen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NijmegenNijmegen
Statistic
Utrecht
Nijmegen
Yellow cards per game
2.4
1.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.8
0.9

Matches with card data
2
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 39.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 61.6% for over 2.5 to 10.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 39.4%. Head to head on cards, Nijmegen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 23.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Utrecht over 1.5 cards sits at 44.5% and Nijmegen at 49.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.7% (Utrecht 2.3%, Nijmegen 5.5%). Utrecht’s most frequent referee this season, J. Kooij, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

39.4%Over 3.5 cards
7.7%Any red card
41.9%Most cards: Nijmegen
44.5%Utrecht over 1.5 cards
49.9%Nijmegen over 1.5 cards
52.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 39.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ. Kooij, Utrecht’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianNijmegen are the pick to collect more cards at 41.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
UtrechtUtrecht

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NijmegenNijmegen
Statistic
Utrecht
Nijmegen
fouls per game
16.3
11.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Utrecht vs Nijmegen?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 39.4% for Utrecht vs Nijmegen.
Will there be a red card in Utrecht vs Nijmegen?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Utrecht vs Nijmegen?
The model rates Nijmegen to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 23.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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EredivisieUtrecht fixtures and statsNEC Nijmegen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.