Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs 
Elversberg Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.8% for over 2.5 to 18.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. Between the two sides, Elversberg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 21.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.1% | 81.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.9%
28.0%
57.7%
30.7%
Card handicap
| Union Berlin line | Union Berlin | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.7% | 80.4% |
| -0.5 | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| +0.5 | 58.8% | 41.3% |
| +1.5 | 77.5% | 22.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.4% | 69.6% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Union Berlin vs Elversberg. The model leans toward Elversberg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
52.2%Over 3.5 cards8.2%Any red card54.9%Union Berlin over 1.5 cards57.7%Elversberg over 1.5 cards41.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Union Berlin over 1.5 cards sits at 54.9% and Elversberg at 57.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.2% (Union Berlin 3.7%, Elversberg 4.7%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.2% for Union Berlin vs Elversberg.
Will there be a red card in Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
The model rates Elversberg to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
