Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Union Berlin50.0%
Win probability · fair 2.00
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely83.1%Fair 1.20
Union Berlin or drawLikely73.3%Fair 1.36
Both teams to scoreLikely62.4%Fair 1.60
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Union Berlin at 50% for 9 October 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 62%. Tim Skarke drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. As a promoted side, Elversberg carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Union Berlin against W2 D1 L1 for Elversberg. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners40.5%@ 2.47
Over 11.5 corners31.2%@ 3.21
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners61.6%@ 1.62
Over 2.5 goals61.5%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners50.9%@ 1.96
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.8%@ 9.29
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.62
1-0 correct score7.2%@ 13.93
Model vs market
Union Berlin
50.0%
Draw
23.3%
Elversberg
26.7%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely83.1%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5Likely61.5%Fair 1.63
BTTS · YesLikely62.4%Fair 1.60
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.6%Fair 1.62
Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.9%Fair 1.96
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely40.5%Fair 2.47
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely31.2%Fair 3.21
Most cornersUnion Berlin57.6%Elversberg31.9%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely72.9%Fair 1.37
Over 24.5 shotsLikely61.7%Fair 1.62
Over 26.5 shotsClose call49.6%Fair 2.02
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely37.9%Fair 2.64
Recent shot volume
Union Berlin13.3 taken16.7 faced
Elversberg10.2 taken21.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Union Berlin (4 games)
2.2 / 9.8
Elversberg (4 games)
5.0 / 5.2
Totals line guide
0.5·1.583.1%2.561.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.5%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Tim SkarkeUnion Berlin · key player
To score5.2%19.23
1+ on target29.2%3.42
2+ shots15.9%6.29
Shots/90 2.12SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.16
Marin LjubicicUnion Berlin · in form
To score15.4%6.49
1+ on target24.3%4.12
2+ shots7.4%13.51
Shots/90 1.49SoT/90 0.93Goals/90 0.56
Robert SkovUnion Berlin · in form
To score9.8%10.20
1+ on target27.1%3.69
2+ shots24.5%4.08
Shots/90 1.47SoT/90 0.49Goals/90 0.16
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Union Berlin win2.05
Draw4.21
Elversberg win3.64
Both teams to score1.60
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.63
Over 3.5 goals2.55
Over 4.5 goals4.65
Union Berlin most2.05
Elversberg most3.64
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.91
Over 10.5 corners2.47
Union Berlin most1.73
Elversberg most3.13
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.37
Over 3.5 cards1.91
Over 4.5 cards3.05
Over 5.5 cards5.52
Union Berlin most2.67
Elversberg most2.42
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.66
Over 9.5 SoT2.06
Union Berlin most1.79
Elversberg most3.05
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.37
Over 24.5 shots1.62
Over 26.5 shots2.02
Over 28.5 shots2.64
Union Berlin most1.59
Elversberg most3.17
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.87
Over 22.5 fouls2.42
Over 24.5 fouls3.29
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
72.9%
Over 24.5
61.7%
Over 26.5
49.6%
Over 28.5
37.8%
Most: Union Berlin
62.8%
Most: Elversberg
31.6%
Union Berlin Over 13.2
57.3%
Elversberg Over 13.2
34.7%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
81.4%
Over 7.5
71.5%
Over 8.5
60.2%
Over 9.5
48.5%
Most: Union Berlin
55.8%
Most: Elversberg
32.7%
Union Berlin Over 4.2
58.9%
Elversberg Over 4.2
42.3%
Cards
Over 2.5
72.8%
Over 3.5
52.2%
Over 4.5
32.8%
Most: Union Berlin
37.4%
Most: Elversberg
41.3%
Union Berlin Over 1.8
54.9%
Elversberg Over 1.8
57.7%
Union Berlin: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Tim Skarke
2.12
1.03
0.16
29.2%
15.9%
5.2%
Marin Ljubicic
1.49
0.93
0.56
24.3%
7.4%
15.4%
Robert Skov
1.47
0.49
0.16
27.1%
24.5%
9.8%
Woo-Yeong Jeong
1.63
0.49
0.21
23.8%
22.9%
11.0%
Tom Rothe
1.41
0.48
0.13
26.8%
23.3%
8.1%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Union Berlin clean sheet
26.0%
Elversberg clean sheet
15.9%
Union Berlin win to nil
21.3%
Elversberg win to nil
11.2%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
48.7%
draw
23.8%
away
27.5%
double_chance
1X
72.5%
12
76.2%
X2
51.3%
dnb
home
63.9%
away
36.1%
btts
yes
62.5%
no
37.6%
clean_sheet
home
26.3%
away
15.9%
win_to_nil
home
21.6%
away
11.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.3%
home_by_2
14.9%
home_by_3plus
12.5%
away_by_1
15.4%
away_by_2
7.9%
away_by_3plus
4.2%
correct_score
0-0
4.7%
0-1
5.1%
0-2
3.7%
0-3
1.7%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.2%
1-0
7.2%
1-1
10.8%
1-2
6.9%
1-3
3.1%
1-4
1.0%
1-5
0.3%
2-0
7.1%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
6.3%
2-3
2.8%
2-4
0.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
4.3%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
3.9%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
2.0%
4-1
2.7%
4-2
1.8%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.7%
5-1
1.0%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
10.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.3%
under_0.5
4.7%
over_1.5
83.1%
under_1.5
17.0%
over_2.5
61.5%
under_2.5
38.5%
over_3.5
39.2%
under_3.5
60.8%
over_4.5
21.5%
under_4.5
78.5%
over_5.5
10.3%
under_5.5
89.7%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.1%
team_home
over_0.5
84.1%
under_0.5
15.9%
over_1.5
54.8%
under_1.5
45.2%
over_2.5
27.9%
under_2.5
72.1%
team_away
over_0.5
73.7%
under_0.5
26.3%
over_1.5
38.6%
under_1.5
61.4%
over_2.5
15.2%
under_2.5
84.8%
most
home
48.7%
draw
23.8%
away
27.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
12.5%
away_+2.5
87.6%
home_-1.5
27.4%
away_+1.5
72.6%
home_-0.5
48.7%
away_+0.5
51.3%
home_+0.5
72.5%
away_-0.5
27.5%
home_+1.5
87.9%
away_-1.5
12.1%
home_+2.5
95.8%
away_-2.5
4.2%
total_exact
exact_0
4.7%
exact_1
12.3%
exact_2
21.6%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
17.7%
exact_5
11.2%
exact_6
5.9%
exact_7plus
4.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
22.8%
draw
37.9%
away
39.2%
total
over_0.5
75.0%
under_0.5
25.0%
over_1.5
40.4%
under_1.5
59.6%
over_2.5
16.4%
under_2.5
83.7%
btts
yes
24.1%
no
75.9%
total_exact
exact_0
25.0%
exact_1
34.6%
exact_2
24.0%
exact_3
11.1%
exact_4plus
5.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
31.6%
draw
30.7%
away
37.8%
total
over_0.5
86.6%
under_0.5
13.4%
over_1.5
59.7%
under_1.5
40.3%
over_2.5
32.7%
under_2.5
67.3%
btts
yes
40.1%
no
59.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
15.6%
H/D
4.5%
H/A
2.8%
D/H
12.0%
D/D
11.6%
D/A
14.3%
A/H
3.3%
A/D
6.1%
A/A
29.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
75.4%
under_7.5
24.6%
over_8.5
64.3%
under_8.5
35.7%
over_9.5
52.3%
under_9.5
47.7%
over_10.5
40.5%
under_10.5
59.5%
over_11.5
29.9%
under_11.5
70.1%
over_12.5
21.1%
under_12.5
78.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.8%
under_3.5
23.2%
over_4.5
62.4%
under_4.5
37.6%
over_5.5
47.3%
under_5.5
52.8%
team_away
over_3.5
60.1%
under_3.5
39.9%
over_4.5
42.8%
under_4.5
57.2%
over_5.5
28.0%
under_5.5
72.0%
most
home
57.7%
draw
10.3%
away
31.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.9%
away_+3.5
73.2%
home_-1.5
46.9%
away_+1.5
53.1%
home_-0.5
57.7%
away_+0.5
42.3%
home_+0.5
68.1%
away_-0.5
31.9%
home_+1.5
77.1%
away_-1.5
22.9%
home_+3.5
90.1%
away_-3.5
9.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
72.9%
under_22.5
27.1%
over_24.5
61.7%
under_24.5
38.4%
over_26.5
49.6%
under_26.5
50.4%
over_28.5
37.9%
under_28.5
62.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
79.6%
under_10.5
20.4%
over_12.5
65.3%
under_12.5
34.7%
over_14.5
49.4%
under_14.5
50.6%
team_away
over_10.5
60.8%
under_10.5
39.2%
over_12.5
42.9%
under_12.5
57.1%
over_14.5
27.4%
under_14.5
72.6%
most
home
62.8%
draw
5.6%
away
31.6%
handicap
home_-4.5
38.8%
away_+4.5
61.2%
home_-2.5
50.8%
away_+2.5
49.2%
home_-0.5
62.8%
away_+0.5
37.2%
home_+0.5
68.4%
away_-0.5
31.6%
home_+2.5
78.4%
away_-2.5
21.6%
home_+4.5
86.2%
away_-4.5
13.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
81.4%
under_6.5
18.6%
over_7.5
71.5%
under_7.5
28.5%
over_8.5
60.2%
under_8.5
39.8%
over_9.5
48.5%
under_9.5
51.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
74.3%
under_3.5
25.7%
over_4.5
58.9%
under_4.5
41.1%
over_5.5
43.4%
under_5.5
56.6%
team_away
over_3.5
59.9%
under_3.5
40.1%
over_4.5
42.3%
under_4.5
57.7%
over_5.5
27.3%
under_5.5
72.7%
most
home
55.8%
draw
11.4%
away
32.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
32.8%
away_+2.5
67.2%
home_-0.5
55.8%
away_+0.5
44.2%
home_+0.5
67.3%
away_-0.5
32.8%
home_+2.5
85.2%
away_-2.5
14.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
72.8%
under_2.5
27.2%
over_3.5
52.2%
under_3.5
47.8%
over_4.5
32.8%
under_4.5
67.2%
over_5.5
18.1%
under_5.5
81.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
54.9%
under_1.5
45.1%
over_2.5
28.0%
under_2.5
72.0%
team_away
over_1.5
57.7%
under_1.5
42.3%
over_2.5
30.7%
under_2.5
69.4%
most
home
37.4%
draw
21.3%
away
41.3%
handicap
home_-1.5
19.7%
away_+1.5
80.4%
home_-0.5
37.4%
away_+0.5
62.6%
home_+0.5
58.8%
away_-0.5
41.3%
home_+1.5
77.5%
away_-1.5
22.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
53.6%
under_20.5
46.4%
over_22.5
41.4%
under_22.5
58.6%
over_24.5
30.4%
under_24.5
69.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
59.9%
under_9.5
40.1%
over_11.5
42.7%
under_11.5
57.3%
over_13.5
27.9%
under_13.5
72.1%
team_away
over_9.5
54.3%
under_9.5
45.7%
over_11.5
37.0%
under_11.5
63.0%
over_13.5
23.1%
under_13.5
77.0%
most
home
50.8%
draw
6.3%
away
42.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
32.4%
away_+3.5
67.6%
home_-0.5
50.8%
away_+0.5
49.2%
home_+2.5
69.2%
away_-2.5
30.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
8.2%
no
91.8%
home
yes
3.7%
no
96.3%
away
yes
4.7%
no
95.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
Elversberg