Ligue 1
Troyes vs 
Marseille Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 46.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.1% for over 7.5 to 17.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.9%. On the corner count, Troyes are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.9%, with a level count at 10.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 71.1% | 29.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.4% | 74.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
71.4%
55.7%
40.3%
60.2%
43.0%
28.3%
Corner handicap
| Troyes line | Troyes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| -0.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| +0.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| +1.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
This season (2026/27)
6.8Troyes corners won per game1.5Troyes corners conceded per game5.0Marseille corners won per game4.0Marseille corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Troyes.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
46.9%Over 9.5 corners55.7%Troyes over 4.5 corners43.0%Marseille over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Troyes over 4.5 corners sits at 55.7% and Marseille at 43.0%. This season Troyes have averaged 6.8 corners won a game and Marseille 5.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Troyes vs Marseille?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.9% for Troyes vs Marseille.
Which team will win the corner count in Troyes vs Marseille?
The model rates Troyes to win the corner count at 52.9%, with a level count at 10.9%.
How many corners do Troyes and Marseille average this season?
Troyes have won 6.8 corners a game this season and Marseille 5.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
