Ligue 1
Troyes vs 
Marseille Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 45.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.2% for over 2.5 to 13.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.5%. Head to head on cards, Marseille are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 22.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 13.7% | 86.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.0%
21.2%
56.0%
29.0%
Card handicap
| Troyes line | Troyes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.8% | 84.2% |
| -0.5 | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| +0.5 | 55.1% | 45.0% |
| +1.5 | 75.3% | 24.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 41.7% | 58.3% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Troyes cards per game11.3Troyes fouls per game1.3Marseille cards per game9.8Marseille fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Troyes vs Marseille. The model leans toward Marseille for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
45.5%Over 3.5 cards11.3%Any red card47.0%Troyes over 1.5 cards56.0%Marseille over 1.5 cards56.0%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Troyes over 1.5 cards sits at 47.0% and Marseille at 56.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.3% (Troyes 6.0%, Marseille 5.6%). This season Troyes have averaged 0.8 cards a game and Marseille 1.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Troyes vs Marseille?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 45.5% for Troyes vs Marseille.
Will there be a red card in Troyes vs Marseille?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Troyes vs Marseille?
The model rates Marseille to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 22.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
