AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

League Two
TranmereTranmereLDLWD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
CheltenhamCheltenhamLLLWW

Tranmere vs Cheltenham cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Ross Martin

Assigned per API-Football, seen 28 Oct 2026, 14:07 UTC. An assignment can change before kickoff.

Ross Martin in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 16 3
Goals 1.94 Not available
Yellow cards 3.81 Not available
Red cards 0.06 Not available
Corners 10.2 Not available
Fouls 24.0 Not available
Both teams scored 44% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 25% Not available
Home wins 44% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
10 Oct 2026 Port Vale vs Grimsby 1-0 1 No 2 0 12 19
3 Oct 2026 Salford vs Fleetwood Town 1-0 1 No 2 0 14 13
1 Sep 2026 Chesterfield vs Gillingham 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 10 20
18 Apr 2026 Fleetwood Town vs Chesterfield 1-1 2 Yes 0 1 10 17
3 Mar 2026 Bromley vs Oldham 0-0 0 No 4 0 10 21
28 Feb 2026 Colchester vs Salford 0-1 1 No 5 0 9 30
17 Feb 2026 Crewe vs Fleetwood Town 0-1 1 No 3 0 8 25
3 Feb 2026 Harrogate vs Swindon 0-1 1 No 2 0 16 16
24 Jan 2026 Cambridge vs Tranmere 4-2 6 Yes 5 0 8 25
17 Jan 2026 Accrington vs Milton Keynes Dons 0-2 2 No 4 0 5 27

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Tranmere vs Cheltenham. The model leans toward Cheltenham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.5% 27.6%
3.5 cards 51.8% 48.2%
4.5 cards 32.4% 67.6%
5.5 cards 17.8% 82.2%

Who picks up more cards

Tranmere
37.5%
Level
21.4%
Cheltenham
41.1%

Team cards lines

Tranmere

Over 1.5
54.8%
Over 2.5
27.9%

Cheltenham

Over 1.5
57.3%
Over 2.5
30.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Tranmere's; Cheltenham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Tranmere line Tranmere Cheltenham
-1.5 19.7% 80.3%
-0.5 37.5% 62.5%
+0.5 58.9% 41.1%
+1.5 77.6% 22.4%

Red card

Any red card17.4%
Tranmere red card5.8%
Cheltenham red card12.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 64.3% 35.7%
22.5 fouls 48.7% 51.3%
24.5 fouls 33.7% 66.3%
TranmereTranmere

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Tranmere at home and Cheltenham away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CheltenhamCheltenham
Statistic
Tranmere
Cheltenham
Cards per game at this venue
2.3
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.0
·

Yellow cards per game
2.2
2.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.5
1.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.7
1.3

Matches with more cards than the opponent
60.0%
·

Matches with card data
10
7
Red cards this season
2
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 51.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.5% for over 2.5 to 17.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. On the card count, Cheltenham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 21.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Tranmere over 1.5 cards sits at 54.8% and Cheltenham at 57.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.4% (Tranmere 5.8%, Cheltenham 12.3%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

51.8%Over 3.5 cards
17.4%Any red card
41.1%Most cards: Cheltenham
54.8%Tranmere over 1.5 cards
57.3%Cheltenham over 1.5 cards
48.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCheltenham are the pick to collect more cards at 41.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
TranmereTranmere

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CheltenhamCheltenham
Statistic
Tranmere
Cheltenham
cards per game
2.2
·

fouls per game
11.3
12.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Tranmere vs Cheltenham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.8% for Tranmere vs Cheltenham.
Will there be a red card in Tranmere vs Cheltenham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Tranmere vs Cheltenham?
The model rates Cheltenham to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoTranmere fixtures and statsCheltenham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.