AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
TrabzonsporTrabzonsporLWLWW
Full time2-0Mon, 19 Oct 202619/1018:00UK
BesiktasBesiktasWWWLW

Trabzonspor 2-0 Besiktas cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined68%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined32.1%

Result

Trabzonspor2-0Besiktas
5 yellow cardsTrabzonspor 1, Besiktas 4
Over 3.5

We called Over 3.5 at 68.0% and it landed (5 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards68.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Cihan Aydin

Recorded match referee.

Cihan Aydin in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 24 4
Goals 2.29 Not available
Yellow cards 4.54 Not available
Red cards 0.25 Not available
Corners 10.5 Not available
Fouls 27.4 Not available
Both teams scored 50% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 42% Not available
Home wins 38% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
19 Oct 2026 Trabzonspor vs Besiktas 2-0 2 No 5 0 10 28
13 Sep 2026 Amedspor vs Buyuksehyr 5-0 5 No 3 0 6 18
30 Aug 2026 Eyupspor vs Alanyaspor 2-1 3 Yes 4 1 3 38
15 Aug 2026 Konyaspor vs Rizespor 0-1 1 No 5 0 8 23
9 May 2026 Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa 3-2 5 Yes 14 1 9 35
18 Apr 2026 Karagumruk vs Eyupspor 1-2 3 Yes 3 1 11 26
4 Apr 2026 Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray 2-1 3 Yes 8 1 13 27
14 Mar 2026 Kocaelispor vs Konyaspor 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 15 25
9 Mar 2026 Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor 1-3 4 Yes 4 1 14 17
28 Feb 2026 Kocaelispor vs Besiktas 0-1 1 No 3 0 5 28

Cihan Aydin referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Trabzonspor vs Besiktas. It tips Besiktas for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 84.1% 15.9%
3.5 cards 68.0% 32.1%
4.5 cards 49.3% 50.7%
5.5 cards 32.0% 68.0%

Who picks up more cards

Trabzonspor
38.2%
Level
19.1%
Besiktas
42.7%

Team cards lines

Trabzonspor

Over 1.5
65.8%
Over 2.5
39.2%

Besiktas

Over 1.5
68.7%
Over 2.5
42.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Trabzonspor's; Besiktas gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Trabzonspor line Trabzonspor Besiktas
-1.5 21.8% 78.2%
-0.5 38.2% 61.8%
+0.5 57.3% 42.7%
+1.5 74.6% 25.4%

Red card

Any red card22.5%
Trabzonspor red card12.3%
Besiktas red card11.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 85.6% 14.5%
22.5 fouls 74.8% 25.2%
24.5 fouls 61.4% 38.6%
TrabzonsporTrabzonspor

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Trabzonspor at home and Besiktas away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BesiktasBesiktas
Statistic
Trabzonspor
Besiktas
Cards per game at this venue
3.3
2.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.3
4.0

Yellow cards per game
2.3
2.3

Matches with card data
7
7
Red cards this season
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 68.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 84.1% for over 2.5 to 32.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.3%. On the card count, Besiktas are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.7%, with a level count at 19.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Trabzonspor over 1.5 cards sits at 65.8% and Besiktas at 68.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.5% (Trabzonspor 12.3%, Besiktas 11.7%). This season Trabzonspor have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Besiktas 2.3.

68.0%Over 3.5 cards
22.5%Any red card
42.7%Most cards: Besiktas
65.8%Trabzonspor over 1.5 cards
68.7%Besiktas over 1.5 cards
74.8%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 68.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 22.5%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianBesiktas are the pick to collect more cards at 42.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 49.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
TrabzonsporTrabzonspor

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BesiktasBesiktas
Statistic
Trabzonspor
Besiktas
cards per game
2.4
2.3

fouls per game
10.6
13.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Trabzonspor vs Besiktas?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 68.0% for Trabzonspor vs Besiktas.
Will there be a red card in Trabzonspor vs Besiktas?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Trabzonspor vs Besiktas?
Before kickoff, the model rated Besiktas to pick up more cards at 42.7%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Süper LigTrabzonspor fixtures and statsBesiktas fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.