Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Nottingham Forest Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 51.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.1% for over 7.5 to 23.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.9%. Head to head on corners, Aston Villa are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.8%, with a level count at 9.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 32.1% | 68.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 23.2% | 76.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.4%
60.1%
45.6%
62.9%
46.7%
32.2%
Corner handicap
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| -0.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| +0.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| +1.5 | 72.8% | 27.3% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Aston Villa.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Aston Villa over 4.5 corners sits at 60.1% and Nottingham Forest at 46.7%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 53.9% for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest.
Which team will win the corner count in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The model rates Aston Villa to win the corner count at 53.8%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.