Premier League
Chelsea vs 
Hull Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 51.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.9% for over 7.5 to 23.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.7%. On the corner count, Chelsea are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.7%, with a level count at 9.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 23.0% | 77.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.3%
61.2%
46.8%
61.4%
45.0%
30.7%
Corner handicap
| Chelsea line | Chelsea | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.0% | 73.0% |
| -1.5 | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| -0.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| +0.5 | 65.5% | 34.5% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Chelsea.
In-depth analysis
By team, Chelsea over 4.5 corners sits at 61.2% and Hull at 45.0%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Chelsea vs Hull?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 53.7% for Chelsea vs Hull.
Which team will win the corner count in Chelsea vs Hull?
The model rates Chelsea to win the corner count at 55.7%, with a level count at 9.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.