Serie A
TorinoTorinoDWWWL
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1114:00UK13°C · Clearing
LecceLecceLLWLL

Torino vs Lecce xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Torino1.38

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Lecce1.68

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Torino have created 1.38 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Lecce have created 1.68 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

TorinoTorino

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

LecceLecce
Statistic
Torino
Lecce
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.38
1.68

xG conceded per game
1.34
2.19

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

TorinoTorinoLast 5
D
Draw · 1-1
W
Win · 2-1
W
Win · 3-0
W
Win · 3-2
L
Loss · 1-3

3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss

LecceLecceLast 5
L
Loss · 0-3
L
Loss · 1-2
W
Win · 3-0
L
Loss · 0-2
L
Loss · 1-5

1 win · 0 draws · 4 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2TorinoTorino wins
1Draws
2LecceLecce wins
1.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
TorinoTorino
1 – 0
LecceLecce
LecceLecce
2 – 1
TorinoTorino
LecceLecce
1 – 0
TorinoTorino
TorinoTorino
0 – 0
LecceLecce
TorinoTorino
2 – 0
LecceLecce

Match outlook

PickTorino49.1%
Draw26.5%
Lecce24.4%

The model leans Torino to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.8%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,049Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.1%Favoured: Torino
51.8%Both Teams to Score
47.9%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

TorinoTorino (1)
Duván Zapata
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
9.1%
10.99
1+ shot on target
36.3%
2.75
2+ shots
30.0%
3.33
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.77
On target1.14
Goals0.24
LecceLecce (1)
Konan N’Dri
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
6.2%
16.13
1+ shot on target
24.1%
4.15
2+ shots
22.5%
4.44
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.20
On target0.99
Goals0.23

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Expected Goals (xG)

Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.