AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 16 Oct 2026

League Two
SwindonSwindonWLLDL
Full time0-1Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1012:30UK
CreweCreweDDDDW

Swindon 0-1 Crewe cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.8%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.2%

Result

Swindon0-1Crewe
3 yellow cardsSwindon 2, Crewe 1
0 red cardsSwindon 0, Crewe 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 57.8% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 86.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards42.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Jamie O'Connor

Recorded match referee.

Jamie O'Connor in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 19 5
Goals 1.84 1.40
Yellow cards 3.05 3.80
Red cards 0.21 0.20
Corners 10.4 10.0
Fouls 20.5 21.6
Both teams scored 21% 20%
Over 2.5 goals 26% 0%
Home wins 42% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Gillingham vs Port Vale 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 13 23
10 Oct 2026 Swindon vs Crewe 0-1 1 No 3 0 8 17
3 Oct 2026 Accrington vs Cheltenham 2-0 2 No 4 1 10 26
12 Sep 2026 Walsall vs Rochdale 0-0 0 No 4 0 11 16
15 Aug 2026 Tranmere vs Shrewsbury 2-0 2 No 5 0 8 26
21 Mar 2026 Shrewsbury vs Crewe 0-4 4 No 3 0 11 22
14 Mar 2026 Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 11 18
7 Mar 2026 Accrington vs Cambridge 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 12 11
17 Jan 2026 Grimsby vs Barnet 1-0 1 No 2 1 12 21
26 Dec 2025 Salford vs Harrogate 1-0 1 No 2 0 10 21

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Swindon vs Crewe. The model leans toward Swindon for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 64.3% 35.7%
3.5 cards 42.2% 57.8%
4.5 cards 23.9% 76.1%
5.5 cards 11.9% 88.1%

Who picks up more cards

Swindon
38.5%
Level
23.0%
Crewe
38.5%

Team cards lines

Swindon

Over 1.5
49.3%
Over 2.5
23.1%

Crewe

Over 1.5
49.3%
Over 2.5
23.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Swindon's; Crewe gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Swindon line Swindon Crewe
-1.5 19.4% 80.6%
-0.5 38.5% 61.5%
+0.5 61.5% 38.5%
+1.5 80.6% 19.4%

Red card

Any red card14.0%
Swindon red card8.5%
Crewe red card6.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.2% 37.8%
22.5 fouls 46.4% 53.6%
24.5 fouls 31.7% 68.3%
SwindonSwindon

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Swindon at home and Crewe away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CreweCrewe
Statistic
Swindon
Crewe
Cards per game at this venue
1.3
2.5

Opponent cards per game at this venue
0.8
1.3

Yellow cards per game
1.6
1.9

Red cards this season
2
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 42.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 64.3% for over 2.5 to 11.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.2%. On the card count, Swindon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 38.5%, with a level count at 23.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Swindon over 1.5 cards sits at 49.3% and Crewe at 49.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.0% (Swindon 8.5%, Crewe 6.0%). This season Swindon have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Crewe 2.0.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

42.2%Over 3.5 cards
14.0%Any red card
38.5%Most cards: Swindon
49.3%Swindon over 1.5 cards
49.3%Crewe over 1.5 cards
46.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 42.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSwindon are the pick to collect more cards at 38.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 42.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
SwindonSwindon

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CreweCrewe
Statistic
Swindon
Crewe
cards per game
1.8
2.0

fouls per game
10.3
13.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Swindon vs Crewe?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 42.2% for Swindon vs Crewe.
Will there be a red card in Swindon vs Crewe?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Swindon vs Crewe?
Before kickoff, the model rated Swindon to pick up more cards at 38.5%, with a level count at 23.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoSwindon fixtures and statsCrewe fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.