Bundesliga
Stuttgart vs 
FC Koln Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 53.5% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 82.5% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.8% for over 2.5 to 19.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.5%. On the card count, Stuttgart are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.1% | 80.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
58.2%
31.2%
56.2%
29.2%
Card handicap
| Stuttgart line | Stuttgart | FC Koln |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| -0.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| +0.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| +1.5 | 79.8% | 20.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.3% | 74.7% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Stuttgart vs FC Koln. Slightly more cards are projected for Stuttgart for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.5%Over 3.5 cards17.5%Any red card58.2%Stuttgart over 1.5 cards56.2%FC Koln over 1.5 cards35.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Stuttgart over 1.5 cards sits at 58.2% and FC Koln at 56.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.5% (Stuttgart 8.7%, FC Koln 9.6%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Stuttgart vs FC Koln?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.5% for Stuttgart vs FC Koln.
Will there be a red card in Stuttgart vs FC Koln?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Stuttgart vs FC Koln?
Before kickoff, the model rated Stuttgart to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.