Bundesliga
Stuttgart vs 
FC Koln Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 58.7% and it landed (40 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 70.9% and it landed (13 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 58.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.3% for over 22.5 to 35.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.6%. On the shot count, Stuttgart are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.9%, with a level count at 5.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 35.0% | 65.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.0%
65.9%
50.2%
55.3%
37.5%
22.9%
Shot handicap
| Stuttgart line | Stuttgart | FC Koln |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| -2.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| -0.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| +0.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 80.9% | 19.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 48.0% | 52.0% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Stuttgart.
In-depth analysis
58.7%Over 24.5 shots65.9%Stuttgart over 12.5 shots37.5%FC Koln over 12.5 shots70.9%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Stuttgart over 12.5 shots sits at 65.9% and FC Koln at 37.5%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Stuttgart vs FC Koln?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 58.7% for Stuttgart vs FC Koln.
Which team will have more shots in Stuttgart vs FC Koln?
Before kickoff, the model rated Stuttgart to take more shots at 66.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.