Stuttgart vs FC Koln: model prediction
Bundesliga
StuttgartLDDWD
Fri, 4 Sep 202619:30UK
FC KolnDLDLL
Model’s top convictions
88%
Over 1.5 goals
83%
Stuttgart or draw
71%
Over 2.5 goals
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
StuttgartWin probability
66.0%
Top 3 convictions
Over 1.5 goals88.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.13
Stuttgart or draw83.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 2.5 goals70.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Stuttgart at 66% against FC Koln, Bundesliga, 4 September 2026. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 70% with both teams to score at 66%. The recent series reads 4 wins for Stuttgart, 1 draws and 0 for FC Koln over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. The run in: Stuttgart arrive W2 D3 L1, FC Koln W1 D2 L3. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Over 10.5 corners40.9%@ 2.44
Draw or FC Koln34.1%@ 2.94
Over 11.5 corners31.7%@ 3.15
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners61.8%@ 1.62
Over 9.5 corners51.2%@ 1.95
Random finds
2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.74
1-1 correct score8.3%@ 12.08
3-1 correct score7.4%@ 13.59
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
Stuttgart
66.0%
Draw
17.0%
FC Koln
17.0%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.588.2%
High probability
Over 2.570.5%
Strong chance
BTTS · Yes65.6%
Strong chance
Corners markets
Over 8.561.8%
Strong chance
Over 9.551.2%
Good chance
Over 10.540.9%
Toss-up
Over 11.531.7%
Toss-up
Most cornersStuttgart 59.9% · FC Koln 29.9%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.588.2%2.570.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.570.5%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Form & head-to-head
StuttgartLDDWD
FC KolnDLDLL
Last 5 meetings: Stuttgart 4 · 1 draws · FC Koln 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
2026-02-14Stuttgart 3-1 FC Koln
2025-09-28FC Koln 1-2 Stuttgart
2024-02-24Stuttgart 1-1 FC Koln
2023-09-30FC Koln 0-2 Stuttgart
2023-02-18Stuttgart 3-0 FC Koln
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
StuttgartFC KolnLeague position#4 of 18#14 of 18
Record W-D-L18-8-87-11-16
Current streakD1L2
Points per game1.820.94
Record, home vs away12-3-22-7-8
PPG, home vs away2.290.76
Goals scored per game2.091.44
Goals conceded per game1.441.85
Scored, home vs away1.761.12
Conceded, home vs away0.941.94
1st half goals per game0.970.56
2nd half goals per game1.120.88
Corners won per game5.74.6
Cards per game1.92.0
Fouls per game9.68.3
Red cards this season23
Shots on target per game6.14.6
xG for per game2.011.58
xG against per game1.571.82
Over 2.5 rate
73.5%64.7%
BTTS rate
61.8%79.4%
Clean sheets
32.4%8.8%
Rates this season:StuttgartFC Koln
League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Stuttgart win1.63
Draw5.10
FC Koln win5.26
Both teams to score1.53
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.13
Over 2.5 goals1.42
Over 3.5 goals2.02
Over 4.5 goals3.30
Stuttgart most1.63
FC Koln most5.26
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.55
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.44
Stuttgart most1.67
FC Koln most3.34
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.81
Over 4.5 cards2.81
Over 5.5 cards4.93
Stuttgart most2.49
FC Koln most2.57
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.24
Over 7.5 SoT1.42
Over 8.5 SoT1.69
Over 9.5 SoT2.10
Stuttgart most1.59
FC Koln most3.81
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.43
Over 24.5 shots1.73
Over 26.5 shots2.18
Over 28.5 shots2.92
Stuttgart most1.48
FC Koln most3.70
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.22
Over 22.5 fouls2.99
Over 24.5 fouls4.25
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 80.7% | Over 7.5 | 70.6% | Over 8.5 | 59.2% | Over 9.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Stuttgart | 63.0% | Most: FC Koln | 26.2% | ||||
| Stuttgart Over 4.2 | 62.8% | FC Koln Over 4.2 | 35.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 75.0% | Over 3.5 | 55.1% | Over 4.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Stuttgart | 40.1% | Most: FC Koln | 38.9% | ||
| Stuttgart Over 1.8 | 58.8% | FC Koln Over 1.8 | 57.9% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 61.4% | draw | 19.6% | away | 19.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 81.0% | 12 | 80.4% | X2 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 76.3% | away | 23.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 65.6% | no | 34.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.0% | away | 9.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.0% | away | 6.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.2% | home_by_2 | 18.1% | home_by_3plus | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 11.2% | away_by_2 | 5.3% | away_by_3plus | 2.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 3.0% | 0-1 | 3.0% | 0-2 | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.9% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 5.8% | 1-1 | 8.3% | 1-2 | 5.0% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 2-1 | 9.3% | 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 5.8% | 3-1 | 7.4% | 3-2 | 4.7% |
| 3-3 | 2.0% | 3-4 | 0.6% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 3.5% | 4-1 | 4.4% | 4-2 | 2.8% |
| 4-3 | 1.2% | 4-4 | 0.4% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.7% | 5-1 | 2.1% | 5-2 | 1.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.6% | 5-4 | 0.2% | 5-5 | 0.1% |
| other | 3.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 9.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 97.0% | under_0.5 | 3.0% | over_1.5 | 88.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 11.8% | over_2.5 | 70.5% | under_2.5 | 29.5% |
| over_3.5 | 49.4% | under_3.5 | 50.6% | over_4.5 | 30.3% |
| under_4.5 | 69.7% | over_5.5 | 16.3% | under_5.5 | 83.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.2% | even | 50.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 90.6% | under_0.5 | 9.4% | over_1.5 | 68.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 31.6% | over_2.5 | 42.3% | under_2.5 | 57.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 72.0% | under_0.5 | 28.0% | over_1.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.7% | over_2.5 | 13.7% | under_2.5 | 86.3% |
most
| home | 61.4% | draw | 19.6% | away | 19.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 22.1% | away_+2.5 | 77.9% | home_-1.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.8% | home_-0.5 | 61.4% | away_+0.5 | 38.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 81.0% | away_-0.5 | 19.0% | home_+1.5 | 92.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.8% | home_+2.5 | 97.5% | away_-2.5 | 2.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 3.0% | exact_1 | 8.8% | exact_2 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.1% | exact_4 | 19.2% | exact_5 | 14.0% |
| exact_6 | 8.5% | exact_7plus | 7.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 53.6% | draw | 30.9% | away | 15.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.8% | under_0.5 | 18.2% | over_1.5 | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.2% | over_2.5 | 24.4% | under_2.5 | 75.6% |
btts
| yes | 27.6% | no | 72.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 18.2% | exact_1 | 31.0% | exact_2 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 15.0% | exact_4plus | 9.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 52.6% | draw | 28.0% | away | 19.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 87.5% | under_0.5 | 12.5% | over_1.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.5% | over_2.5 | 34.5% | under_2.5 | 65.5% |
btts
| yes | 37.9% | no | 62.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 47.0% | H/D | 4.8% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.3% | D/D | 8.6% | D/A | 6.0% |
| A/H | 3.4% | A/D | 3.8% | A/A | 8.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.6% | under_7.5 | 24.4% | over_8.5 | 64.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.4% | over_9.5 | 52.7% | under_9.5 | 47.3% |
| over_10.5 | 41.0% | under_10.5 | 59.0% | over_11.5 | 30.5% |
| under_11.5 | 69.5% | over_12.5 | 21.6% | under_12.5 | 78.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.0% | under_3.5 | 22.0% | over_4.5 | 64.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.0% | over_5.5 | 49.2% | under_5.5 | 50.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.4% | under_3.5 | 41.7% | over_4.5 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.9% | over_5.5 | 26.6% | under_5.5 | 73.4% |
most
| home | 60.0% | draw | 10.0% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.1% | away_+3.5 | 70.9% | home_-1.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.6% | home_-0.5 | 60.0% | away_+0.5 | 40.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% | home_+1.5 | 78.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.3% | home_+3.5 | 90.9% | away_-3.5 | 9.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 69.7% | under_22.5 | 30.3% | over_24.5 | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 42.0% | over_26.5 | 45.8% | under_26.5 | 54.2% |
| over_28.5 | 34.2% | under_28.5 | 65.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.0% | under_10.5 | 20.0% | over_12.5 | 65.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 34.1% | over_14.5 | 50.2% | under_14.5 | 49.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.2% | under_10.5 | 45.8% | over_12.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.7% | over_14.5 | 21.9% | under_14.5 | 78.1% |
most
| home | 67.7% | draw | 5.3% | away | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.6% | away_+4.5 | 56.4% | home_-2.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 44.1% | home_-0.5 | 67.7% | away_+0.5 | 32.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.0% | away_-0.5 | 27.0% | home_+2.5 | 82.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.9% | home_+4.5 | 89.0% | away_-4.5 | 11.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 80.7% | under_6.5 | 19.3% | over_7.5 | 70.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 29.4% | over_8.5 | 59.2% | under_8.5 | 40.8% |
| over_9.5 | 47.5% | under_9.5 | 52.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.3% | under_3.5 | 22.7% | over_4.5 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.2% | over_5.5 | 47.6% | under_5.5 | 52.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.6% | under_3.5 | 46.4% | over_4.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.1% | over_5.5 | 21.9% | under_5.5 | 78.1% |
most
| home | 63.0% | draw | 10.7% | away | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 39.5% | away_+2.5 | 60.5% | home_-0.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 37.0% | home_+0.5 | 73.8% | away_-0.5 | 26.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.3% | away_-2.5 | 10.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 75.1% | under_2.5 | 25.0% | over_3.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 44.9% | over_4.5 | 35.6% | under_4.5 | 64.4% |
| over_5.5 | 20.3% | under_5.5 | 79.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 58.8% | under_1.5 | 41.2% | over_2.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 57.9% | under_1.5 | 42.1% | over_2.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.1% |
most
| home | 40.1% | draw | 20.9% | away | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.0% | away_+1.5 | 78.0% | home_-0.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.9% | home_+0.5 | 61.1% | away_-0.5 | 38.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.9% | away_-1.5 | 21.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 45.1% | under_20.5 | 54.9% | over_22.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 66.6% | over_24.5 | 23.5% | under_24.5 | 76.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 47.9% | under_9.5 | 52.1% | over_11.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 68.8% | over_13.5 | 18.7% | under_13.5 | 81.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 54.0% | under_9.5 | 46.0% | over_11.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 62.9% | over_13.5 | 23.5% | under_13.5 | 76.5% |
most
| home | 42.4% | draw | 6.5% | away | 51.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.8% | away_+3.5 | 75.2% | home_-0.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.6% | home_+2.5 | 61.8% | away_-2.5 | 38.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.1% | no | 80.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.6% | no | 90.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.6% | no | 89.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: Stuttgart predictions · FC Koln predictions · Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.