Ligue 1Stade Rennais FC vs 
Marseille Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 50.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.7% for over 22.5 to 27.1% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.1%. On the shot count, Stade Rennais FC are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.2%, with a level count at 6.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 27.1% | 72.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.3%
52.2%
35.7%
58.4%
40.3%
25.0%
Shot handicap
| Stade Rennais FC line | Stade Rennais FC | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| -2.5 | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| -0.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| +0.5 | 61.4% | 38.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.9% | 24.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.1% | 59.9% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Stade Rennais FC.
In-depth analysis
50.1%Over 24.5 shots52.2%Stade Rennais FC over 12.5 shots40.3%Marseille over 12.5 shots64.4%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Stade Rennais FC over 12.5 shots sits at 52.2% and Marseille at 40.3%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Stade Rennais FC vs Marseille?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 50.1% for Stade Rennais FC vs Marseille.
Which team will have more shots in Stade Rennais FC vs Marseille?
The model rates Stade Rennais FC to take more shots at 55.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.