Monaco vs Lens prediction & probabilities (2026-09-18)

By /

Monaco vs Lens: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 10 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Monaco

LLWWW

Fri, 18 Sep 202619:45UK21°C · Cloudy
Lens

LWWLL

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Draw or Lens

63%

Both teams to score

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LensWin probability
39.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals82.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.22
Draw or Lens63.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.57
Both teams to score62.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.59

Model read

▾

Monaco versus Lens in the Ligue 1 on 18 September 2026 is finely balanced. Lens edge it at 39%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 60% with both teams to score at 63%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Monaco, 1 draws and 2 for Lens, averaging 4.2 goals a game. • For shots markets, Mika Biereth is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Monaco arrive W4 D0 L2, Lens W3 D0 L3. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Lens win39.5%@ 2.53
Over 10.5 corners38.2%@ 2.62
Medium risk

Monaco or draw60.5%@ 1.65
Over 2.5 goals60.2%@ 1.66
Over 8.5 corners59.3%@ 1.69
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.3%@ 8.86
1-2 correct score8.5%@ 11.72
2-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.17

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Monaco

36.2%

Draw

24.4%

Lens

39.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.3%

High probability

Over 2.560.2%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes62.8%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.3%

Good chance

Over 9.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.1%

Low chance

Most cornersMonaco51.2%Lens37.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.8%

Good chance

Over 26.540.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.3%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Monaco12.2 taken14.3 faced
Lens16.5 taken12.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Monaco (3 games)

6.7 / 3.3

Lens (3 games)

6.7 / 8.7

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.3%2.560.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.560.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

MonacoLLWWW
LensLWWLL

Last 5 meetings: Monaco 2 · 1 draws · Lens 2 · 4.2 goals/game.

2026-02-21Lens 2-3 Monaco
2025-11-08Monaco 1-4 Lens
2025-05-17Lens 4-0 Monaco
2024-09-01Monaco 1-1 Lens
2024-02-25Lens 2-3 Monaco

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MonacoLens
League position#1 of 18#10 of 18
Record W-D-L3-0-01-0-2
Current streakW3L2
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Mika BierethMonaco · key player
To score26.1%

@ 3.83

1+ on target45.0%

@ 2.22

2+ shots34.4%

@ 2.91

Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.58
Odsonne EdouardLens · key player
To score28.4%

@ 3.52

1+ on target57.7%

@ 1.73

2+ shots51.3%

@ 1.95

Shots/90 2.88SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.56
Stanis Idumbo MuzamboMonaco · in form
To score11.2%

@ 8.93

1+ on target24.5%

@ 4.08

2+ shots20.6%

@ 4.85

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.39
Florian ThauvinLens · in form
To score30.1%

@ 3.32

1+ on target62.7%

@ 1.59

2+ shots66.0%

@ 1.52

Shots/90 2.59SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.41
Aleksandr GolovinMonaco · in form
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target46.8%

@ 2.14

2+ shots37.6%

@ 2.66

Shots/90 1.74SoT/90 0.84Goals/90 0.23
Abdallah SimaLens · in form
To score15.2%

@ 6.58

1+ on target39.9%

@ 2.51

2+ shots41.1%

@ 2.43

Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.35

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Monaco win2.75
Draw4.03
Lens win2.58
Both teams to score1.59

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.66
Over 3.5 goals2.64
Over 4.5 goals4.89
Monaco most2.75
Lens most2.58

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.62
Over 9.5 corners2.02
Over 10.5 corners2.64
Monaco most1.95
Lens most2.64

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.37
Over 3.5 cards1.90
Over 4.5 cards3.02
Over 5.5 cards5.45
Monaco most2.79
Lens most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.28
Over 7.5 SoT1.49
Over 8.5 SoT1.82
Over 9.5 SoT2.33
Monaco most2.00
Lens most2.66

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.90
Over 26.5 shots2.47
Over 28.5 shots3.42
Monaco most1.82
Lens most2.58

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.38
Over 22.5 fouls1.70
Over 24.5 fouls2.23
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.2% Over 24.5 52.8% Over 26.5 40.4% Over 28.5 29.3%
Most: Monaco 55.0% Most: Lens 38.8%
Monaco Over 13.2 45.4% Lens Over 13.2 34.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.0% Over 7.5 67.0% Over 8.5 54.9% Over 9.5 42.8%
Most: Monaco 50.1% Most: Lens 37.6%
Monaco Over 4.2 51.5% Lens Over 4.2 42.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.0% Over 3.5 52.5% Over 4.5 33.1%
Most: Monaco 35.8% Most: Lens 43.0%
Monaco Over 1.8 53.9% Lens Over 1.8 59.1%

Monaco: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mika Biereth 2.34 1.15 0.58 45.0% 34.4% 26.1%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo 2.75 0.92 0.39 24.5% 20.6% 11.2%
Aleksandr Golovin 1.74 0.84 0.23 46.8% 37.6% 15.9%
Matthis Abline 2.61 0.83 0.25 51.5% 66.3% 19.6%
Denis Zakaria 1.03 0.3 0.15 24.5% 25.1% 13.1%

Lens: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Odsonne Edouard 2.88 1.44 0.56 57.7% 51.3% 28.4%
Florian Thauvin 2.59 1.13 0.41 62.7% 66.0% 30.1%
Abdallah Sima 2.99 1.08 0.35 39.9% 41.1% 15.2%
Andrija Bulatovic 1.87 0.82 0 27.4% 16.6% 0.0%
Florian Sotoca 2.19 0.58 0.09 20.7% 21.8% 3.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Monaco clean sheet 20.4%
Lens clean sheet 21.6%
Monaco win to nil 15.4%
Lens win to nil 16.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.4% draw 24.8% away 38.8%
double_chance
1X 61.2% 12 75.2% X2 63.7%
dnb
home 48.4% away 51.6%
btts
yes 62.8% no 37.2%
clean_sheet
home 20.5% away 21.7%
win_to_nil
home 15.5% away 16.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.6% home_by_2 10.9% home_by_3plus 6.9%
away_by_1 19.3% away_by_2 11.7% away_by_3plus 7.9%
correct_score
0-0 5.0% 0-1 6.5% 0-2 5.6%
0-3 3.0% 0-4 1.2% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 6.2% 1-1 11.3% 1-2 8.5%
1-3 4.5% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 5.2% 2-1 8.2% 2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.5% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.7% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.0% under_0.5 5.0% over_1.5 82.3%
under_1.5 17.7% over_2.5 60.2% under_2.5 39.8%
over_3.5 37.9% under_3.5 62.1% over_4.5 20.5%
under_4.5 79.5% over_5.5 9.6% under_5.5 90.4%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 78.3% under_0.5 21.7% over_1.5 45.2%
under_1.5 54.8% over_2.5 19.9% under_2.5 80.1%
team_away
over_0.5 79.5% under_0.5 20.5% over_1.5 47.1%
under_1.5 52.9% over_2.5 21.3% under_2.5 78.7%
most
home 36.4% draw 24.8% away 38.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.9% away_+2.5 93.1% home_-1.5 17.8%
away_+1.5 82.2% home_-0.5 36.4% away_+0.5 63.6%
home_+0.5 61.2% away_-0.5 38.8% home_+1.5 80.5%
away_-1.5 19.6% home_+2.5 92.2% away_-2.5 7.9%
total_exact
exact_0 5.0% exact_1 12.7% exact_2 22.1%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.4% exact_5 10.9%
exact_6 5.6% exact_7plus 4.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.4% draw 41.8% away 29.8%
total
over_0.5 70.1% under_0.5 29.9% over_1.5 34.0%
under_1.5 66.0% over_2.5 12.2% under_2.5 87.8%
btts
yes 20.5% no 79.5%
total_exact
exact_0 29.9% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 21.8%
exact_3 8.8% exact_4plus 3.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.2% draw 31.4% away 32.4%
total
over_0.5 85.6% under_0.5 14.4% over_1.5 57.7%
under_1.5 42.3% over_2.5 30.7% under_2.5 69.3%
btts
yes 38.5% no 61.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.8% H/D 4.9% H/A 2.6%
D/H 15.2% D/D 13.1% D/A 13.5%
A/H 3.3% A/D 5.6% A/A 20.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.2% under_7.5 26.8% over_8.5 61.7%
under_8.5 38.3% over_9.5 49.5% under_9.5 50.5%
over_10.5 37.9% under_10.5 62.1% over_11.5 27.6%
under_11.5 72.4% over_12.5 19.2% under_12.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.8% under_3.5 28.2% over_4.5 56.2%
under_4.5 43.8% over_5.5 40.9% under_5.5 59.1%
team_away
over_3.5 63.0% under_3.5 37.0% over_4.5 46.0%
under_4.5 54.0% over_5.5 31.0% under_5.5 69.0%
most
home 51.3% draw 10.8% away 37.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.6% away_+3.5 78.4% home_-1.5 40.4%
away_+1.5 59.6% home_-0.5 51.3% away_+0.5 48.7%
home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 37.9% home_+1.5 72.1%
away_-1.5 28.0% home_+3.5 87.1% away_-3.5 12.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.2% under_22.5 34.8% over_24.5 52.8%
under_24.5 47.2% over_26.5 40.4% under_26.5 59.6%
over_28.5 29.3% under_28.5 70.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.8% under_10.5 29.2% over_12.5 53.9%
under_12.5 46.1% over_14.5 37.3% under_14.5 62.7%
team_away
over_10.5 60.5% under_10.5 39.5% over_12.5 42.3%
under_12.5 57.7% over_14.5 26.7% under_14.5 73.3%
most
home 55.0% draw 6.2% away 38.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.4% away_+4.5 69.6% home_-2.5 42.3%
away_+2.5 57.7% home_-0.5 55.0% away_+0.5 45.0%
home_+0.5 61.2% away_-0.5 38.8% home_+2.5 72.7%
away_-2.5 27.3% home_+4.5 82.1% away_-4.5 17.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.0% under_6.5 22.0% over_7.5 67.0%
under_7.5 33.0% over_8.5 54.9% under_8.5 45.1%
over_9.5 42.8% under_9.5 57.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 51.5%
under_4.5 48.5% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
team_away
over_3.5 60.3% under_3.5 39.7% over_4.5 42.5%
under_4.5 57.5% over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
most
home 50.1% draw 12.3% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.9% away_+2.5 73.1% home_-0.5 50.1%
away_+0.5 49.9% home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6%
home_+2.5 82.5% away_-2.5 17.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.0% under_2.5 27.0% over_3.5 52.5%
under_3.5 47.5% over_4.5 33.1% under_4.5 66.9%
over_5.5 18.4% under_5.5 81.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.9% under_1.5 46.1% over_2.5 27.1%
under_2.5 72.9%
team_away
over_1.5 59.1% under_1.5 40.9% over_2.5 32.0%
under_2.5 68.0%
most
home 35.8% draw 21.2% away 43.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.5% away_+1.5 81.5% home_-0.5 35.8%
away_+0.5 64.2% home_+0.5 57.0% away_-0.5 43.0%
home_+1.5 76.1% away_-1.5 23.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 72.5% under_20.5 27.5% over_22.5 59.0%
under_22.5 41.0% over_24.5 44.8% under_24.5 55.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.8% under_9.5 27.2% over_11.5 53.1%
under_11.5 46.9% over_13.5 33.9% under_13.5 66.1%
team_away
over_9.5 71.8% under_9.5 28.2% over_11.5 51.8%
under_11.5 48.2% over_13.5 32.7% under_13.5 67.3%
most
home 47.3% draw 7.2% away 45.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.1% away_+3.5 72.9% home_-0.5 47.3%
away_+0.5 52.7% home_+2.5 68.2% away_-2.5 31.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 25.5% no 74.5%
home
yes 13.9% no 86.1%
away
yes 13.5% no 86.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Monaco predictions · Lens predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Ligue 1MonacoLensTrack record