Paris FC vs Strasbourg prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Paris FC vs Strasbourg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Paris FC

LWDWW

Sat, 19 Sep 202616:15UK25°C · Cloudy
Strasbourg

WWLWW

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Paris FC or draw

62%

Both teams to score

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Paris FCWin probability
45.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.22
Paris FC or draw69.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.44
Both teams to score61.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

"46% on Paris FC is a measurement, not a promise." Paris FC versus Strasbourg on 19 September 2026 tilts towards Paris FC in our numbers (46%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 62%. Luca Koleosho drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Paris FC against W4 D1 L1 for Strasbourg. The recent series reads 0 wins for Paris FC, 1 draws and 1 for Strasbourg over 2 games, 2.5 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Over 10.5 corners35.6%@ 2.81
Strasbourg win30.3%@ 3.29
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals59.4%@ 1.68
Over 8.5 corners56.7%@ 1.76
Draw or Strasbourg54.2%@ 1.84
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.3%@ 8.83
2-1 correct score9.1%@ 10.94
1-2 correct score7.5%@ 13.40

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Paris FC

45.8%

Draw

23.9%

Strasbourg

30.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.7%

High probability

Over 2.559.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.7%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.7%

Good chance

Over 9.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.7%

Low chance

Most cornersParis FC56.4%Strasbourg32.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.4%

Good chance

Over 26.541.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.8%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Paris FC14.7 taken11.8 faced
Strasbourg13.3 taken18.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Paris FC (3 games)

6.7 / 7.7

Strasbourg (3 games)

7.0 / 6.3

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.7%2.559.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.7%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Paris FCLWDWW
StrasbourgWWLWW

Last 2 meetings: Paris FC 0 · 1 draws · Strasbourg 1 · 2.5 goals/game.

2026-03-15Strasbourg 0-0 Paris FC
2025-09-21Paris FC 2-3 Strasbourg

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Paris FCStrasbourg
League position#3 of 18#6 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-02-0-1
Current streakW2W2
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-1
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Luca KoleoshoParis FC · key player
To score12.7%

@ 7.87

1+ on target39.4%

@ 2.54

2+ shots29.8%

@ 3.36

Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.29Goals/90 0.35
Conrad HarderStrasbourg · key player
To score11.7%

@ 8.55

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots42.1%

@ 2.38

Shots/90 4.49SoT/90 1.56Goals/90 0.39
Lassine SinayokoParis FC · in form
To score26.7%

@ 3.75

1+ on target60.4%

@ 1.66

2+ shots68.9%

@ 1.45

Shots/90 2.76SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.36
Samuel Amo-AmeyawStrasbourg · in form
To score14.4%

@ 6.94

1+ on target33.6%

@ 2.98

2+ shots18.9%

@ 5.29

Shots/90 1.94SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.38
Vincent MarchettiParis FC · in form
To score11.9%

@ 8.40

1+ on target28.4%

@ 3.52

2+ shots29.5%

@ 3.39

Shots/90 2.92SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.34
Sékou MaraStrasbourg · in form
To score7.4%

@ 13.51

1+ on target26.4%

@ 3.79

2+ shots25.0%

@ 4.00

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.18

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Paris FC win2.25
Draw4.05
Strasbourg win3.24
Both teams to score1.62

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.68
Over 3.5 goals2.70
Paris FC most2.25
Strasbourg most3.24

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.70
Over 9.5 corners2.15
Over 10.5 corners2.86
Paris FC most1.77
Strasbourg most3.05

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.50
Over 3.5 cards2.23
Over 4.5 cards3.83
Over 5.5 cards7.51
Paris FC most2.52
Strasbourg most2.64

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27
Over 7.5 SoT1.48
Over 8.5 SoT1.80
Over 9.5 SoT2.30
Paris FC most1.86
Strasbourg most2.93

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.52
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.43
Over 28.5 shots3.36
Paris FC most1.63
Strasbourg most3.06

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.62
Over 22.5 fouls2.13
Over 24.5 fouls3.03
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.8% Over 24.5 53.4% Over 26.5 41.1% Over 28.5 29.8%
Most: Paris FC 61.4% Most: Strasbourg 32.6%
Paris FC Over 13.2 50.4% Strasbourg Over 13.2 29.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.5% Over 7.5 67.6% Over 8.5 55.6% Over 9.5 43.6%
Most: Paris FC 53.9% Most: Strasbourg 34.1%
Paris FC Over 4.2 54.5% Strasbourg Over 4.2 40.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 66.6% Over 3.5 44.8% Over 4.5 26.1%
Most: Paris FC 39.7% Most: Strasbourg 37.8%
Paris FC Over 1.8 51.8% Strasbourg Over 1.8 50.4%

Paris FC: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Luca Koleosho 2.81 1.29 0.35 39.4% 29.8% 12.7%
Lassine Sinayoko 2.76 1.07 0.36 60.4% 68.9% 26.7%
Vincent Marchetti 2.92 0.9 0.34 28.4% 29.5% 11.9%
Pablo Pagis 2.79 0.81 0.43 44.6% 60.3% 26.9%
Ilan Kebbal 2.05 0.8 0.31 50.2% 53.3% 23.7%

Strasbourg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Conrad Harder 4.49 1.56 0.39 39.3% 42.1% 11.7%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 1.94 1 0.38 33.6% 18.9% 14.4%
Sékou Mara 2.26 0.72 0.18 26.4% 25.0% 7.4%
Pape Diop 2.07 0.67 0.06 44.0% 53.4% 5.1%
Sebastian Nanasi 1.33 0.63 0.31 37.1% 25.7% 20.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Paris FC clean sheet 24.9%
Strasbourg clean sheet 18.3%
Paris FC win to nil 19.8%
Strasbourg win to nil 13.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 44.4% draw 24.7% away 30.9%
double_chance
1X 69.1% 12 75.3% X2 55.6%
dnb
home 59.0% away 41.0%
btts
yes 61.7% no 38.3%
clean_sheet
home 25.1% away 18.4%
win_to_nil
home 20.0% away 13.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.8% home_by_2 13.6% home_by_3plus 10.1%
away_by_1 16.8% away_by_2 9.0% away_by_3plus 5.0%
correct_score
0-0 5.1% 0-1 5.8% 0-2 4.4%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 7.3% 1-1 11.3% 1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.4% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.6% 2-1 9.1% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 3.7% 3-1 5.2% 3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.7% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.6% 4-1 2.2% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.9% under_0.5 5.1% over_1.5 81.7%
under_1.5 18.3% over_2.5 59.4% under_2.5 40.6%
over_3.5 37.0% under_3.5 63.0% over_4.5 19.8%
under_4.5 80.2% over_5.5 9.2% under_5.5 90.8%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 81.6% under_0.5 18.4% over_1.5 50.5%
under_1.5 49.5% over_2.5 24.1% under_2.5 75.9%
team_away
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.1% over_1.5 40.2%
under_1.5 59.8% over_2.5 16.3% under_2.5 83.8%
most
home 44.4% draw 24.7% away 30.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.1% away_+2.5 89.9% home_-1.5 23.6%
away_+1.5 76.4% home_-0.5 44.4% away_+0.5 55.6%
home_+0.5 69.1% away_-0.5 30.9% home_+1.5 86.0%
away_-1.5 14.0% home_+2.5 95.0% away_-2.5 5.0%
total_exact
exact_0 5.1% exact_1 13.1% exact_2 22.4%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.2% exact_5 10.6%
exact_6 5.4% exact_7plus 3.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 40.5% away 27.2%
total
over_0.5 72.0% under_0.5 28.0% over_1.5 36.3%
under_1.5 63.7% over_2.5 13.6% under_2.5 86.4%
btts
yes 22.1% no 78.0%
total_exact
exact_0 28.0% exact_1 35.7% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 9.6% exact_4plus 4.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 31.8% away 29.4%
total
over_0.5 84.8% under_0.5 15.2% over_1.5 56.2%
under_1.5 43.8% over_2.5 29.2% under_2.5 70.8%
btts
yes 36.9% no 63.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.7% H/D 5.1% H/A 2.5%
D/H 15.7% D/D 12.9% D/A 11.9%
A/H 3.3% A/D 5.4% A/A 18.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.7% under_7.5 29.3% over_8.5 58.8%
under_8.5 41.2% over_9.5 46.5% under_9.5 53.5%
over_10.5 35.0% under_10.5 65.0% over_11.5 25.0%
under_11.5 75.0% over_12.5 17.1% under_12.5 83.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.3% under_3.5 26.7% over_4.5 58.0%
under_4.5 42.0% over_5.5 42.7% under_5.5 57.3%
team_away
over_3.5 57.2% under_3.5 42.8% over_4.5 39.8%
under_4.5 60.2% over_5.5 25.4% under_5.5 74.6%
most
home 56.5% draw 10.7% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.2% away_+3.5 74.8% home_-1.5 45.4%
away_+1.5 54.6% home_-0.5 56.5% away_+0.5 43.5%
home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8% home_+1.5 76.6%
away_-1.5 23.4% home_+3.5 90.1% away_-3.5 10.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.8% under_22.5 34.2% over_24.5 53.4%
under_24.5 46.6% over_26.5 41.1% under_26.5 58.9%
over_28.5 29.8% under_28.5 70.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.8% under_10.5 25.2% over_12.5 58.8%
under_12.5 41.2% over_14.5 42.2% under_14.5 57.8%
team_away
over_10.5 56.2% under_10.5 43.8% over_12.5 37.9%
under_12.5 62.1% over_14.5 23.0% under_14.5 77.0%
most
home 61.4% draw 5.9% away 32.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.5% away_+4.5 63.5% home_-2.5 48.9%
away_+2.5 51.1% home_-0.5 61.4% away_+0.5 38.6%
home_+0.5 67.4% away_-0.5 32.6% home_+2.5 77.9%
away_-2.5 22.1% home_+4.5 86.1% away_-4.5 13.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.5% under_6.5 21.5% over_7.5 67.6%
under_7.5 32.4% over_8.5 55.6% under_8.5 44.4%
over_9.5 43.6% under_9.5 56.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.0% under_3.5 29.0% over_4.5 54.6%
under_4.5 45.5% over_5.5 38.7% under_5.5 61.3%
team_away
over_3.5 58.2% under_3.5 41.8% over_4.5 40.2%
under_4.5 59.8% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 53.9% draw 12.0% away 34.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.2% away_+2.5 69.8% home_-0.5 53.9%
away_+0.5 46.1% home_+0.5 65.9% away_-0.5 34.1%
home_+2.5 84.8% away_-2.5 15.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 66.6% under_2.5 33.4% over_3.5 44.8%
under_3.5 55.2% over_4.5 26.1% under_4.5 73.9%
over_5.5 13.3% under_5.5 86.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 51.8% under_1.5 48.2% over_2.5 25.3%
under_2.5 74.7%
team_away
over_1.5 50.4% under_1.5 49.6% over_2.5 24.1%
under_2.5 75.9%
most
home 39.7% draw 22.5% away 37.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.5% away_+1.5 79.5% home_-0.5 39.7%
away_+0.5 60.3% home_+0.5 62.2% away_-0.5 37.8%
home_+1.5 80.8% away_-1.5 19.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 61.9% under_20.5 38.1% over_22.5 47.0%
under_22.5 53.0% over_24.5 33.0% under_24.5 67.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.8% under_9.5 34.2% over_11.5 44.8%
under_11.5 55.2% over_13.5 26.4% under_13.5 73.6%
team_away
over_9.5 64.2% under_9.5 35.8% over_11.5 43.0%
under_11.5 57.0% over_13.5 24.9% under_13.5 75.1%
most
home 47.5% draw 7.5% away 45.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.5% away_+3.5 73.5% home_-0.5 47.5%
away_+0.5 52.5% home_+2.5 69.2% away_-2.5 30.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.3% no 85.7%
home
yes 7.5% no 92.5%
away
yes 7.4% no 92.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Paris FC predictions · Strasbourg predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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