Lyon vs Rennes prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

By /

Lyon vs Rennes: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Lyon

LLWDW

Sat, 19 Sep 202619:45UK21°C · Clear
Rennes

WLDWW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Lyon or draw

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LyonWin probability
47.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals83.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.20
Lyon or draw71.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Over 8.5 corners63.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Lyon: 48% is the model's line for this Ligue 1 meeting on 19 September 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 63%. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Lyon against W3 D1 L2 for Rennes. Loïs Openda drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Lyon, 0 draws and 3 for Rennes at 4.6 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35
Over 11.5 corners33.2%@ 3.01
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals61.3%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners52.9%@ 1.89
Draw or Rennes52.1%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.9%@ 9.17
2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.81
1-2 correct score7.2%@ 13.87

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lyon

47.9%

Draw

23.7%

Rennes

28.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.583.0%

High probability

Over 2.561.3%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes62.9%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.9%

Good chance

Over 10.542.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.2%

Toss-up

Most cornersLyon55.7%Rennes33.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.6%

Good chance

Over 26.543.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.531.8%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Lyon16.3 taken12.2 faced
Rennes16.2 taken17.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Lyon (3 games)

5.0 / 10.7

Rennes (2 games)

8.5 / 11.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.0%2.561.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.3%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

LyonLLWDW
RennesWLDWW

Last 5 meetings: Lyon 2 · 0 draws · Rennes 3 · 4.6 goals/game.

2026-05-03Lyon 4-2 Rennes
2025-09-14Rennes 3-1 Lyon
2025-04-26Lyon 4-1 Rennes
2024-08-18Rennes 3-0 Lyon
2024-01-26Lyon 2-3 Rennes

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LyonRennes
League position#2 of 18#5 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-02-1-0
Current streakW1W2
Record, home vs away1-1-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Loïs OpendaLyon · key player
To score14.0%

@ 7.14

1+ on target48.7%

@ 2.05

2+ shots56.7%

@ 1.76

Shots/90 3.16SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.25
Esteban LepaulRennes · key player
To score39.4%

@ 2.54

1+ on target60.8%

@ 1.64

2+ shots65.0%

@ 1.54

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.62
Keito NakamuraLyon · in form
To score30.5%

@ 3.28

1+ on target63.2%

@ 1.58

2+ shots73.9%

@ 1.35

Shots/90 2.9SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.4
Ludovic BlasRennes · in form
To score15.2%

@ 6.58

1+ on target46.5%

@ 2.15

2+ shots48.8%

@ 2.05

Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.24
Ernest NuamahLyon · in form
To score13.8%

@ 7.25

1+ on target40.4%

@ 2.48

2+ shots39.8%

@ 2.51

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.3
Mousa Al TamariRennes · in form
To score13.9%

@ 7.19

1+ on target48.2%

@ 2.07

2+ shots54.7%

@ 1.83

Shots/90 2.45SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.2

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lyon win2.16
Draw4.14
Rennes win3.39
Both teams to score1.59

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.63
Over 3.5 goals2.56
Over 4.5 goals4.68
Lyon most2.16
Rennes most3.39

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.83
Over 10.5 corners2.33
Lyon most1.79
Rennes most2.95

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.37
Over 3.5 cards1.89
Over 4.5 cards3.00
Over 5.5 cards5.40
Lyon most3.15
Rennes most2.11

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27
Over 7.5 SoT1.47
Over 8.5 SoT1.79
Over 9.5 SoT2.28
Lyon most1.92
Rennes most2.78

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.48
Over 24.5 shots1.80
Over 26.5 shots2.31
Over 28.5 shots3.15
Lyon most1.64
Rennes most3.02

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.32
Over 22.5 fouls1.60
Over 24.5 fouls2.06
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 67.8% Over 24.5 55.6% Over 26.5 43.3% Over 28.5 31.8%
Most: Lyon 61.0% Most: Rennes 33.1%
Lyon Over 13.2 51.7% Rennes Over 13.2 31.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.7% Over 7.5 67.9% Over 8.5 55.9% Over 9.5 43.9%
Most: Lyon 52.0% Most: Rennes 35.9%
Lyon Over 4.2 53.5% Rennes Over 4.2 41.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.2% Over 3.5 52.8% Over 4.5 33.3%
Most: Lyon 31.7% Most: Rennes 47.4%
Lyon Over 1.8 50.8% Rennes Over 1.8 62.1%

Lyon: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Loïs Openda 3.16 1.11 0.25 48.7% 56.7% 14.0%
Keito Nakamura 2.9 1.1 0.4 63.2% 73.9% 30.5%
Ernest Nuamah 2.78 1.05 0.3 40.4% 39.8% 13.8%
Malick Fofana 2.04 0.94 0.31 43.5% 35.1% 17.1%
Pavel Sulc 2.4 0.92 0.51 44.0% 44.7% 27.5%

Rennes: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Esteban Lepaul 2.75 1.16 0.62 60.8% 65.0% 39.4%
Ludovic Blas 2.39 0.91 0.24 46.5% 48.8% 15.2%
Mousa Al Tamari 2.45 0.88 0.2 48.2% 54.7% 13.9%
Issa Soumaré 2.26 0.86 0.24 51.8% 57.2% 18.4%
Arnaud Nordin 2.53 0.79 0.21 35.1% 40.3% 10.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lyon clean sheet 24.7%
Rennes clean sheet 16.8%
Lyon win to nil 20.0%
Rennes win to nil 12.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 46.3% draw 24.1% away 29.5%
double_chance
1X 70.5% 12 75.9% X2 53.7%
dnb
home 61.1% away 38.9%
btts
yes 62.9% no 37.1%
clean_sheet
home 25.0% away 16.9%
win_to_nil
home 20.3% away 12.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.9% home_by_2 14.2% home_by_3plus 11.2%
away_by_1 16.2% away_by_2 8.6% away_by_3plus 4.8%
correct_score
0-0 4.7% 0-1 5.3% 0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.9% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 7.0% 1-1 10.9% 1-2 7.2%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.7% 2-1 9.3% 2-2 6.4%
2-3 3.0% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 4.0% 3-1 5.5% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.8% 4-1 2.5% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.3% under_0.5 4.7% over_1.5 83.0%
under_1.5 17.0% over_2.5 61.3% under_2.5 38.7%
over_3.5 39.0% under_3.5 61.0% over_4.5 21.4%
under_4.5 78.6% over_5.5 10.2% under_5.5 89.8%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 83.1% under_0.5 16.9% over_1.5 53.1%
under_1.5 46.9% over_2.5 26.4% under_2.5 73.6%
team_away
over_0.5 75.0% under_0.5 25.0% over_1.5 40.4%
under_1.5 59.6% over_2.5 16.3% under_2.5 83.7%
most
home 46.3% draw 24.1% away 29.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.2% away_+2.5 88.8% home_-1.5 25.4%
away_+1.5 74.6% home_-0.5 46.3% away_+0.5 53.7%
home_+0.5 70.5% away_-0.5 29.5% home_+1.5 86.7%
away_-1.5 13.4% home_+2.5 95.3% away_-2.5 4.8%
total_exact
exact_0 4.7% exact_1 12.3% exact_2 21.6%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 17.7% exact_5 11.2%
exact_6 5.9% exact_7plus 4.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.9% draw 37.7% away 30.4%
total
over_0.5 76.3% under_0.5 23.7% over_1.5 42.2%
under_1.5 57.8% over_2.5 17.6% under_2.5 82.4%
btts
yes 26.3% no 73.7%
total_exact
exact_0 23.7% exact_1 34.1% exact_2 24.6%
exact_3 11.8% exact_4plus 5.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.9% draw 32.0% away 23.2%
total
over_0.5 83.4% under_0.5 16.6% over_1.5 53.7%
under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.9% under_2.5 73.1%
btts
yes 33.5% no 66.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.3% H/D 4.1% H/A 1.6%
D/H 16.9% D/D 12.0% D/A 8.7%
A/H 4.5% A/D 6.6% A/A 19.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.1% under_7.5 22.9% over_8.5 66.4%
under_8.5 33.6% over_9.5 54.6% under_9.5 45.4%
over_10.5 42.9% under_10.5 57.1% over_11.5 32.2%
under_11.5 67.8% over_12.5 23.1% under_12.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.8% under_3.5 23.2% over_4.5 62.4%
under_4.5 37.6% over_5.5 47.4% under_5.5 52.6%
team_away
over_3.5 62.9% under_3.5 37.1% over_4.5 46.0%
under_4.5 54.1% over_5.5 30.9% under_5.5 69.1%
most
home 55.8% draw 10.3% away 33.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.8% away_+3.5 74.2% home_-1.5 45.2%
away_+1.5 54.8% home_-0.5 55.8% away_+0.5 44.2%
home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 33.9% home_+1.5 75.3%
away_-1.5 24.8% home_+3.5 88.8% away_-3.5 11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.8% under_22.5 32.2% over_24.5 55.6%
under_24.5 44.4% over_26.5 43.3% under_26.5 56.8%
over_28.5 31.8% under_28.5 68.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.8% under_10.5 24.2% over_12.5 60.0%
under_12.5 40.0% over_14.5 43.5% under_14.5 56.5%
team_away
over_10.5 58.1% under_10.5 41.9% over_12.5 39.8%
under_12.5 60.2% over_14.5 24.5% under_14.5 75.5%
most
home 61.0% draw 5.9% away 33.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.3% away_+4.5 63.7% home_-2.5 48.6%
away_+2.5 51.4% home_-0.5 61.0% away_+0.5 39.0%
home_+0.5 66.9% away_-0.5 33.1% home_+2.5 77.5%
away_-2.5 22.5% home_+4.5 85.8% away_-4.5 14.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.7% under_6.5 21.3% over_7.5 67.9%
under_7.5 32.1% over_8.5 55.9% under_8.5 44.1%
over_9.5 43.9% under_9.5 56.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.1% under_3.5 29.9% over_4.5 53.5%
under_4.5 46.5% over_5.5 37.6% under_5.5 62.4%
team_away
over_3.5 59.8% under_3.5 40.2% over_4.5 41.9%
under_4.5 58.1% over_5.5 26.8% under_5.5 73.2%
most
home 52.0% draw 12.1% away 35.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.5% away_+2.5 71.5% home_-0.5 52.0%
away_+0.5 48.0% home_+0.5 64.1% away_-0.5 35.9%
home_+2.5 83.6% away_-2.5 16.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.2% under_2.5 26.8% over_3.5 52.8%
under_3.5 47.2% over_4.5 33.3% under_4.5 66.7%
over_5.5 18.5% under_5.5 81.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.8% under_1.5 49.2% over_2.5 24.4%
under_2.5 75.6%
team_away
over_1.5 62.1% under_1.5 37.9% over_2.5 35.1%
under_2.5 64.9%
most
home 31.7% draw 20.9% away 47.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.7% away_+1.5 84.4% home_-0.5 31.7%
away_+0.5 68.3% home_+0.5 52.6% away_-0.5 47.4%
home_+1.5 72.5% away_-1.5 27.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 75.6% under_20.5 24.4% over_22.5 62.6%
under_22.5 37.4% over_24.5 48.6% under_24.5 51.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 70.9% under_9.5 29.1% over_11.5 50.7%
under_11.5 49.3% over_13.5 31.7% under_13.5 68.3%
team_away
over_9.5 77.7% under_9.5 22.3% over_11.5 59.4%
under_11.5 40.6% over_13.5 40.1% under_13.5 59.9%
most
home 40.3% draw 7.0% away 52.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.8% away_+3.5 78.3% home_-0.5 40.3%
away_+0.5 59.7% home_+2.5 61.4% away_-2.5 38.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 22.4% no 77.6%
home
yes 13.9% no 86.2%
away
yes 9.9% no 90.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lyon predictions · Rennes predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Ligue 1LyonRennesTrack record