Shots on target

Over 6.5	76.5%	Over 7.5	65.2%	Over 8.5	53.0%	Over 9.5	41.0%
Most: Angers	40.4%	Most: Stade Rennais FC	47.2%
Angers Over 4.2	43.2%	Stade Rennais FC Over 4.2	48.1%

Cards

Over 2.5	66.4%	Over 3.5	44.5%	Over 4.5	25.9%
Most: Angers	34.8%	Most: Stade Rennais FC	42.8%
Angers Over 1.8	47.9%	Stade Rennais FC Over 1.8	53.9%

Angers: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng	2.73	1.27	0.55	32.2%	20.4%	15.5%
Goduine Koyalipou	2.96	1.21	0.27	49.9%	50.4%	14.3%
Ibrahima Niane	2.82	1.01	0.3	36.6%	36.3%	12.7%
Prosper Peter	1.62	0.99	0.35	36.5%	17.1%	14.8%
Esteban Lepaul	2.19	0.85	0.5	44.5%	44.8%	29.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Angers clean sheet	31.8%
Stade Rennais FC clean sheet	26.5%
Angers win to nil	22.7%
Stade Rennais FC win to nil	17.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	40.2%	draw	28.3%	away	31.4%

double_chance

1X	68.6%	12	71.7%	X2	59.8%

dnb

home	56.2%	away	43.9%

btts

yes	50.7%	no	49.3%

clean_sheet

home	31.9%	away	26.6%

win_to_nil

home	22.8%	away	17.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.5%	home_by_2	12.0%	home_by_3plus	6.7%
away_by_1	18.5%	away_by_2	8.9%	away_by_3plus	4.1%

correct_score

0-0	9.1%	0-1	9.0%	0-2	5.5%
0-3	2.1%	0-4	0.6%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	10.6%	1-1	13.4%	1-2	7.3%
1-3	2.8%	1-4	0.8%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	7.4%	2-1	8.5%	2-2	4.9%
2-3	1.9%	2-4	0.5%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	3.3%	3-1	3.8%	3-2	2.2%
3-3	0.8%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.1%	4-1	1.3%	4-2	0.7%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.4%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.4%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	90.9%	under_0.5	9.1%	over_1.5	71.3%
under_1.5	28.7%	over_2.5	44.9%	under_2.5	55.1%
over_3.5	23.7%	under_3.5	76.3%	over_4.5	10.6%
under_4.5	89.4%	over_5.5	4.1%	under_5.5	95.9%

odd_even

odd	48.4%	even	51.6%

team_home

over_0.5	73.5%	under_0.5	26.6%	over_1.5	38.3%
under_1.5	61.7%	over_2.5	15.0%	under_2.5	85.0%

team_away

over_0.5	68.1%	under_0.5	31.9%	over_1.5	31.7%
under_1.5	68.3%	over_2.5	10.9%	under_2.5	89.1%

most

home	40.2%	draw	28.3%	away	31.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	6.7%	away_+2.5	93.3%	home_-1.5	18.7%
away_+1.5	81.3%	home_-0.5	40.2%	away_+0.5	59.8%
home_+0.5	68.6%	away_-0.5	31.4%	home_+1.5	87.0%
away_-1.5	13.0%	home_+2.5	95.9%	away_-2.5	4.1%

total_exact

exact_0	9.1%	exact_1	19.6%	exact_2	26.4%
exact_3	21.2%	exact_4	13.1%	exact_5	6.5%
exact_6	2.7%	exact_7plus	1.4%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	16.6%	draw	43.5%	away	40.0%

total

over_0.5	65.9%	under_0.5	34.1%	over_1.5	29.2%
under_1.5	70.8%	over_2.5	9.5%	under_2.5	90.5%

btts

yes	15.4%	no	84.6%

total_exact

exact_0	34.1%	exact_1	36.7%	exact_2	19.7%
exact_3	7.1%	exact_4plus	2.4%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	31.0%	draw	39.5%	away	29.5%

total

over_0.5	73.6%	under_0.5	26.4%	over_1.5	38.5%
under_1.5	61.5%	over_2.5	15.0%	under_2.5	85.0%

btts

yes	23.7%	no	76.4%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	12.3%	H/D	3.1%	H/A	1.2%
D/H	13.5%	D/D	17.1%	D/A	12.8%
A/H	2.6%	A/D	6.9%	A/A	30.5%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	71.3%	under_7.5	28.7%	over_8.5	59.4%
under_8.5	40.6%	over_9.5	47.2%	under_9.5	52.8%
over_10.5	35.6%	under_10.5	64.4%	over_11.5	25.6%
under_11.5	74.4%	over_12.5	17.5%	under_12.5	82.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	71.7%	under_3.5	28.3%	over_4.5	56.0%
under_4.5	44.0%	over_5.5	40.7%	under_5.5	59.3%

team_away

over_3.5	60.2%	under_3.5	39.8%	over_4.5	42.9%
under_4.5	57.1%	over_5.5	28.2%	under_5.5	71.8%

most

home	53.2%	draw	10.9%	away	36.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	22.7%	away_+3.5	77.3%	home_-1.5	42.1%
away_+1.5	57.9%	home_-0.5	53.2%	away_+0.5	46.9%
home_+0.5	64.0%	away_-0.5	36.0%	home_+1.5	73.8%
away_-1.5	26.2%	home_+3.5	88.3%	away_-3.5	11.7%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	62.0%	under_22.5	38.0%	over_24.5	49.4%
under_24.5	50.6%	over_26.5	37.2%	under_26.5	62.8%
over_28.5	26.5%	under_28.5	73.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	69.0%	under_10.5	31.0%	over_12.5	51.9%
under_12.5	48.1%	over_14.5	35.5%	under_14.5	64.5%

team_away

over_10.5	57.7%	under_10.5	42.3%	over_12.5	39.5%
under_12.5	60.5%	over_14.5	24.4%	under_14.5	75.6%

most

home	55.5%	draw	6.3%	away	38.3%

handicap

home_-4.5	30.7%	away_+4.5	69.3%	home_-2.5	42.7%
away_+2.5	57.3%	home_-0.5	55.5%	away_+0.5	44.5%
home_+0.5	61.7%	away_-0.5	38.3%	home_+2.5	73.2%
away_-2.5	26.8%	home_+4.5	82.6%	away_-4.5	17.4%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	76.5%	under_6.5	23.5%	over_7.5	65.2%
under_7.5	34.8%	over_8.5	53.0%	under_8.5	47.0%
over_9.5	41.0%	under_9.5	59.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	60.9%	under_3.5	39.1%	over_4.5	43.2%
under_4.5	56.8%	over_5.5	28.1%	under_5.5	71.9%

team_away

over_3.5	65.4%	under_3.5	34.6%	over_4.5	48.1%
under_4.5	51.9%	over_5.5	32.6%	under_5.5	67.4%

most

home	40.4%	draw	12.4%	away	47.2%

handicap

home_-2.5	19.3%	away_+2.5	80.7%	home_-0.5	40.4%
away_+0.5	59.6%	home_+0.5	52.8%	away_-0.5	47.2%
home_+2.5	75.6%	away_-2.5	24.4%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	66.4%	under_2.5	33.6%	over_3.5	44.5%
under_3.5	55.5%	over_4.5	25.9%	under_4.5	74.1%
over_5.5	13.2%	under_5.5	86.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	47.9%	under_1.5	52.1%	over_2.5	22.0%
under_2.5	78.0%

team_away

over_1.5	53.9%	under_1.5	46.1%	over_2.5	27.1%
under_2.5	72.9%

most

home	34.8%	draw	22.5%	away	42.8%

handicap

home_-1.5	17.0%	away_+1.5	83.0%	home_-0.5	34.8%
away_+0.5	65.2%	home_+0.5	57.3%	away_-0.5	42.8%
home_+1.5	77.1%	away_-1.5	22.9%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	68.2%	under_20.5	31.8%	over_22.5	53.9%
under_22.5	46.1%	over_24.5	39.5%	under_24.5	60.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	67.7%	under_9.5	32.3%	over_11.5	46.9%
under_11.5	53.1%	over_13.5	28.2%	under_13.5	71.9%

team_away

over_9.5	70.9%	under_9.5	29.1%	over_11.5	50.6%
under_11.5	49.4%	over_13.5	31.5%	under_13.5	68.5%

most

home	43.7%	draw	7.4%	away	48.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	23.8%	away_+3.5	76.2%	home_-0.5	43.7%
away_+0.5	56.3%	home_+2.5	65.4%	away_-2.5	34.6%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	18.1%	no	81.9%

home

yes	6.1%	no	94.0%

away

yes	12.9%	no	87.1%