Angers vs Troyes prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Angers vs Troyes: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Angers

DDLWL

Sat, 19 Sep 202619:45UK
Troyes

LDDWL

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Angers or draw

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AngersWin probability
41.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals73.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Angers or draw69.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.44
Over 8.5 corners58.6%Good chancePays @ 1.71

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Angers: 42% is the model's line for this Ligue 1 meeting on 19 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. • Form guide over the last six: Angers W1 D2 L3, Troyes W1 D3 L2. • Prosper Peter drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Angers, 1 draws and 1 for Troyes, averaging 3.2 goals a game. As a promoted side, Troyes carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.7%@ 2.10
Over 2.5 goals47.2%@ 2.12
Over 10.5 corners37.5%@ 2.67
Medium risk

Draw or Troyes58.3%@ 1.71
Under 2.5 goals52.8%@ 1.89
Both teams to score52.4%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.59
1-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.87
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.43

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Angers

41.7%

Draw

27.6%

Troyes

30.7%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.2%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.6%

Good chance

Over 9.547.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.4%

Low chance

Most cornersAngers53.9%Troyes35.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.1%

Good chance

Over 26.540.7%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.5%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Angers13.7 taken16.7 faced
Troyes11.3 taken16.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Angers (3 games)

7.0 / 11.3

Troyes (3 games)

7.0 / 8.7

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.1%2.547.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.1%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

AngersDDLWL
TroyesLDDWL

Last 5 meetings: Angers 3 · 1 draws · Troyes 1 · 3.2 goals/game.

2023-05-27Angers 2-1 Troyes
2022-08-28Troyes 3-1 Angers
2022-01-23Angers 2-1 Troyes
2021-09-26Troyes 1-1 Angers
2018-01-17Angers 3-1 Troyes

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AngersTroyes
League position#12 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-21-1-1
Current streakL1L1
Record, home vs away0-0-21-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Prosper PeterAngers · key player
To score13.2%

@ 7.58

1+ on target36.6%

@ 2.73

2+ shots18.1%

@ 5.52

Shots/90 1.79SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.33
Dermane KarimTroyes · key player
To score3.1%

@ 32.26

1+ on target8.5%

@ 11.76

2+ shots12.3%

@ 8.13

Shots/90 1.15SoT/90 0.17Goals/90 0.06
Amine SbaïAngers · in form
To score9.7%

@ 10.31

1+ on target44.3%

@ 2.26

2+ shots44.9%

@ 2.23

Shots/90 1.79SoT/90 0.69Goals/90 0.12
Michel DiazTroyes · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target7.7%

@ 12.99

2+ shots6.6%

@ 15.15

Shots/90 0.47SoT/90 0.09Goals/90 0
Jim AllevinahAngers · in form
To score5.1%

@ 19.61

1+ on target28.8%

@ 3.47

2+ shots37.9%

@ 2.64

Shots/90 2.02SoT/90 0.52Goals/90 0.08

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Angers win2.41
Draw3.61
Troyes win3.24
Both teams to score1.91

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.12
Over 3.5 goals3.90
Angers most2.41
Troyes most3.24

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.64
Over 9.5 corners2.05
Over 10.5 corners2.70
Angers most1.85
Troyes most2.84

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.60
Over 3.5 cards2.48
Over 4.5 cards4.47
Over 5.5 cards9.24
Angers most2.91
Troyes most2.36

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.30
Over 7.5 SoT1.52
Over 8.5 SoT1.87
Over 9.5 SoT2.41
Angers most2.37
Troyes most2.21

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.89
Over 26.5 shots2.46
Over 28.5 shots3.39
Angers most1.75
Troyes most2.72

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.51
Over 22.5 fouls1.94
Over 24.5 fouls2.67
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.5% Over 24.5 53.1% Over 26.5 40.7% Over 28.5 29.5%
Most: Angers 57.1% Most: Troyes 36.8%
Angers Over 13.2 47.1% Troyes Over 13.2 32.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 77.0% Over 7.5 65.7% Over 8.5 53.5% Over 9.5 41.5%
Most: Angers 42.2% Most: Troyes 45.3%
Angers Over 4.2 45.0% Troyes Over 4.2 47.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 62.5% Over 3.5 40.3% Over 4.5 22.4%
Most: Angers 34.4% Most: Troyes 42.4%
Angers Over 1.8 44.8% Troyes Over 1.8 50.9%

Angers: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Prosper Peter 1.79 1.06 0.33 36.6% 18.1% 13.2%
Amine Sbaï 1.79 0.69 0.12 44.3% 44.9% 9.7%
Jim Allevinah 2.02 0.52 0.08 28.8% 37.9% 5.1%
Yassin Belkhdim 0.97 0.4 0.07 25.8% 16.4% 5.1%
Branco van den Boomen 0.89 0.33 0.06 26.8% 20.6% 5.5%

Troyes: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Dermane Karim 1.15 0.17 0.06 8.5% 12.3% 3.1%
Michel Diaz 0.47 0.09 0 7.7% 6.6% 0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Angers clean sheet 31.0%
Troyes clean sheet 24.8%
Angers win to nil 22.7%
Troyes win to nil 16.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.5% draw 27.7% away 30.8%
double_chance
1X 69.2% 12 72.3% X2 58.5%
dnb
home 57.4% away 42.6%
btts
yes 52.4% no 47.6%
clean_sheet
home 31.1% away 24.8%
win_to_nil
home 22.8% away 16.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.6% home_by_2 12.5% home_by_3plus 7.4%
away_by_1 18.0% away_by_2 8.8% away_by_3plus 4.1%
correct_score
0-0 8.4% 0-1 8.4% 0-2 5.3%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.1% 1-1 13.2% 1-2 7.3%
1-3 2.9% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.5% 2-1 8.8% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.5% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.6% under_0.5 8.4% over_1.5 73.1%
under_1.5 26.9% over_2.5 47.2% under_2.5 52.8%
over_3.5 25.6% under_3.5 74.4% over_4.5 11.8%
under_4.5 88.2% over_5.5 4.7% under_5.5 95.3%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 75.2% under_0.5 24.8% over_1.5 40.6%
under_1.5 59.4% over_2.5 16.6% under_2.5 83.5%
team_away
over_0.5 68.9% under_0.5 31.1% over_1.5 32.6%
under_1.5 67.4% over_2.5 11.4% under_2.5 88.6%
most
home 41.5% draw 27.7% away 30.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.4% away_+2.5 92.6% home_-1.5 19.9%
away_+1.5 80.1% home_-0.5 41.5% away_+0.5 58.5%
home_+0.5 69.2% away_-0.5 30.8% home_+1.5 87.2%
away_-1.5 12.8% home_+2.5 95.9% away_-2.5 4.1%
total_exact
exact_0 8.4% exact_1 18.5% exact_2 25.9%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.9% exact_5 7.1%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 16.6% draw 37.2% away 46.2%
total
over_0.5 74.1% under_0.5 25.9% over_1.5 39.1%
under_1.5 60.9% over_2.5 15.5% under_2.5 84.5%
btts
yes 21.0% no 79.0%
total_exact
exact_0 25.9% exact_1 35.0% exact_2 23.6%
exact_3 10.6% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.3% draw 35.9% away 18.8%
total
over_0.5 76.7% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.8%
under_1.5 57.2% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 81.9%
btts
yes 24.3% no 75.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 14.0% H/D 2.1% H/A 0.6%
D/H 16.9% D/D 13.3% D/A 7.0%
A/H 5.7% A/D 9.8% A/A 30.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.5% under_7.5 27.5% over_8.5 60.9%
under_8.5 39.1% over_9.5 48.7% under_9.5 51.3%
over_10.5 37.1% under_10.5 62.9% over_11.5 26.9%
under_11.5 73.1% over_12.5 18.6% under_12.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.0% under_3.5 27.0% over_4.5 57.6%
under_4.5 42.4% over_5.5 42.3% under_5.5 57.7%
team_away
over_3.5 60.5% under_3.5 39.5% over_4.5 43.3%
under_4.5 56.7% over_5.5 28.5% under_5.5 71.5%
most
home 54.0% draw 10.7% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.5% away_+3.5 76.5% home_-1.5 43.0%
away_+1.5 57.0% home_-0.5 54.0% away_+0.5 46.0%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.3% home_+1.5 74.4%
away_-1.5 25.6% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.5% under_22.5 34.5% over_24.5 53.1%
under_24.5 46.9% over_26.5 40.7% under_26.5 59.3%
over_28.5 29.5% under_28.5 70.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.2% under_10.5 27.8% over_12.5 55.5%
under_12.5 44.5% over_14.5 39.0% under_14.5 61.0%
team_away
over_10.5 59.2% under_10.5 40.8% over_12.5 40.9%
under_12.5 59.1% over_14.5 25.5% under_14.5 74.5%
most
home 57.1% draw 6.1% away 36.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.4% away_+4.5 67.7% home_-2.5 44.4%
away_+2.5 55.6% home_-0.5 57.1% away_+0.5 42.9%
home_+0.5 63.2% away_-0.5 36.8% home_+2.5 74.4%
away_-2.5 25.6% home_+4.5 83.5% away_-4.5 16.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 77.0% under_6.5 23.0% over_7.5 65.7%
under_7.5 34.3% over_8.5 53.5% under_8.5 46.5%
over_9.5 41.5% under_9.5 58.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.6% under_3.5 37.4% over_4.5 45.0%
under_4.5 55.0% over_5.5 29.5% under_5.5 70.5%
team_away
over_3.5 64.7% under_3.5 35.3% over_4.5 47.2%
under_4.5 52.8% over_5.5 31.6% under_5.5 68.4%
most
home 42.2% draw 12.5% away 45.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 20.6% away_+2.5 79.4% home_-0.5 42.2%
away_+0.5 57.8% home_+0.5 54.7% away_-0.5 45.3%
home_+2.5 77.1% away_-2.5 22.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 62.5% under_2.5 37.5% over_3.5 40.3%
under_3.5 59.7% over_4.5 22.4% under_4.5 77.6%
over_5.5 10.8% under_5.5 89.2%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 44.8% under_1.5 55.2% over_2.5 19.5%
under_2.5 80.5%
team_away
over_1.5 50.9% under_1.5 49.1% over_2.5 24.5%
under_2.5 75.5%
most
home 34.4% draw 23.2% away 42.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.3% away_+1.5 83.7% home_-0.5 34.4%
away_+0.5 65.6% home_+0.5 57.6% away_-0.5 42.4%
home_+1.5 77.9% away_-1.5 22.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 66.1% under_20.5 33.9% over_22.5 51.6%
under_22.5 48.4% over_24.5 37.4% under_24.5 62.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 67.0% under_9.5 33.0% over_11.5 46.2%
under_11.5 53.8% over_13.5 27.6% under_13.5 72.4%
team_away
over_9.5 68.7% under_9.5 31.3% over_11.5 48.2%
under_11.5 51.8% over_13.5 29.4% under_13.5 70.6%
most
home 44.9% draw 7.4% away 47.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-0.5 44.9%
away_+0.5 55.1% home_+2.5 66.6% away_-2.5 33.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.1% no 87.9%
home
yes 4.1% no 95.9%
away
yes 8.4% no 91.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Angers predictions · Troyes predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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