Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Toulouse vs Le Havre: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Toulouse

WDLDL

Sat, 19 Sep 202619:45UK22°C · Clear
Le Havre

LWLDL

Model’s top convictions

76%

Toulouse or draw

72%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ToulouseWin probability
50.6%
Top 3 convictions

Toulouse or draw76.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Over 1.5 goals72.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.38
Over 8.5 corners58.6%Good chancePays @ 1.71

Model read

▾

"51% on Toulouse is a measurement, not a promise." Toulouse versus Le Havre on 19 September 2026 tilts towards Toulouse in our numbers (51%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Toulouse, 1 draws and 2 for Le Havre, averaging 2.2 goals a game. Santiago Hidalgo drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. The run in: Toulouse arrive W2 D2 L2, Le Havre W1 D2 L3. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.7%@ 2.10
Over 2.5 goals46.3%@ 2.16
Over 10.5 corners37.5%@ 2.67
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals53.7%@ 1.86
Both teams to score50.0%@ 2.00
Draw or Le Havre49.4%@ 2.03
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.84
1-0 correct score11.5%@ 8.67
2-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.81

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Toulouse

50.6%

Draw

25.8%

Le Havre

23.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.6%

Good chance

Over 9.547.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.4%

Low chance

Most cornersToulouse58.4%Le Havre31.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.5%

Good chance

Over 26.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.9%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Toulouse13.2 taken12.7 faced
Le Havre10.7 taken15.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Toulouse (3 games)

10.0 / 5.7

Le Havre (3 games)

6.7 / 8.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.4%2.546.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.4%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

ToulouseWDLDL
Le HavreLWLDL

Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 2 · 1 draws · Le Havre 2 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-02-15Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse
2025-11-02Toulouse 0-0 Le Havre
2025-02-23Le Havre 1-4 Toulouse
2024-09-15Toulouse 2-0 Le Havre
2024-03-10Le Havre 1-0 Toulouse

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ToulouseLe Havre
League position#17 of 18#16 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-20-1-2
Current streakL1L1
Record, home vs away0-0-20-1-0
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Santiago HidalgoToulouse · key player
To score11.6%

@ 8.62

1+ on target41.2%

@ 2.43

2+ shots36.6%

@ 2.73

Shots/90 2.48SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.24
Rayan FofanaLe Havre · key player
To score18.8%

@ 5.32

1+ on target36.1%

@ 2.77

2+ shots38.9%

@ 2.57

Shots/90 4.2SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.65
Jacen Russell-RoweToulouse · in form
To score11.1%

@ 9.01

1+ on target33.9%

@ 2.95

2+ shots30.8%

@ 3.25

Shots/90 2.38SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.25
Mbwana SamattaLe Havre · in form
To score9.1%

@ 10.99

1+ on target51.0%

@ 1.96

2+ shots56.6%

@ 1.77

Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.14
Yann GbohoToulouse · in form
To score19.3%

@ 5.18

1+ on target48.3%

@ 2.07

2+ shots50.7%

@ 1.97

Shots/90 1.91SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.24
Enzo KoffiLe Havre · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target20.0%

@ 5.00

2+ shots5.8%

@ 17.24

Shots/90 1.34SoT/90 0.77Goals/90 0

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Toulouse win2.05
Draw3.72
Le Havre win4.12
Both teams to score2.00

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.16
Over 3.5 goals4.02
Toulouse most2.05
Le Havre most4.12

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.64
Over 9.5 corners2.05
Over 10.5 corners2.70
Toulouse most1.71
Le Havre most3.21

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.95
Over 4.5 cards3.13
Over 5.5 cards5.73
Toulouse most2.70
Le Havre most2.41

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.33
Over 7.5 SoT1.58
Over 8.5 SoT1.97
Over 9.5 SoT2.58
Toulouse most1.79
Le Havre most3.14

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.54
Over 24.5 shots1.91
Over 26.5 shots2.49
Over 28.5 shots3.47
Toulouse most1.52
Le Havre most3.52

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.21
Over 22.5 fouls1.39
Over 24.5 fouls1.70
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.0% Over 24.5 52.5% Over 26.5 40.1% Over 28.5 28.9%
Most: Toulouse 65.9% Most: Le Havre 28.4%
Toulouse Over 13.2 52.9% Le Havre Over 13.2 26.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.9% Over 7.5 63.2% Over 8.5 50.7% Over 9.5 38.7%
Most: Toulouse 56.0% Most: Le Havre 31.9%
Toulouse Over 4.2 52.6% Le Havre Over 4.2 35.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.0% Over 3.5 51.3% Over 4.5 31.9%
Most: Toulouse 37.1% Most: Le Havre 41.4%
Toulouse Over 1.8 54.1% Le Havre Over 1.8 57.2%

Toulouse: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Santiago Hidalgo 2.48 1.03 0.24 41.2% 36.6% 11.6%
Jacen Russell-Rowe 2.38 0.88 0.25 33.9% 30.8% 11.1%
Yann Gboho 1.91 0.74 0.24 48.3% 50.7% 19.3%
Casper Tengstedt 2.52 0.63 0.38 34.1% 49.6% 22.2%
Cristian Cásseres Jr. 0.77 0.2 0.05 17.2% 16.5% 4.6%

Le Havre: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Rayan Fofana 4.2 1.4 0.65 36.1% 38.9% 18.8%
Mbwana Samatta 2.8 1.05 0.14 51.0% 56.6% 9.1%
Enzo Koffi 1.34 0.77 0 20.0% 5.8% 0.0%
Fodé Doucouré 1.45 0.53 0.2 25.0% 18.7% 10.3%
Amir Richardson 1.16 0.45 0.06 19.6% 11.0% 2.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Toulouse clean sheet 36.6%
Le Havre clean sheet 21.9%
Toulouse win to nil 27.9%
Le Havre win to nil 13.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.8% draw 26.9% away 24.3%
double_chance
1X 75.7% 12 73.1% X2 51.2%
dnb
home 66.8% away 33.2%
btts
yes 50.0% no 50.0%
clean_sheet
home 36.8% away 21.9%
win_to_nil
home 28.1% away 13.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.5% home_by_2 15.0% home_by_3plus 10.3%
away_by_1 15.3% away_by_2 6.5% away_by_3plus 2.5%
correct_score
0-0 8.6% 0-1 7.4% 0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.4% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.5% 1-1 12.8% 1-2 6.1%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.3% 2-1 9.3% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.7% 3-1 4.7% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.8% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.4% under_0.5 8.6% over_1.5 72.4%
under_1.5 27.6% over_2.5 46.3% under_2.5 53.7%
over_3.5 24.9% under_3.5 75.1% over_4.5 11.3%
under_4.5 88.7% over_5.5 4.5% under_5.5 95.5%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 78.1% under_0.5 21.9% over_1.5 45.1%
under_1.5 54.9% over_2.5 19.9% under_2.5 80.1%
team_away
over_0.5 63.2% under_0.5 36.8% over_1.5 26.5%
under_1.5 73.6% over_2.5 8.1% under_2.5 92.0%
most
home 48.8% draw 26.9% away 24.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.3% away_+2.5 89.7% home_-1.5 25.3%
away_+1.5 74.7% home_-0.5 48.8% away_+0.5 51.2%
home_+0.5 75.7% away_-0.5 24.3% home_+1.5 91.0%
away_-1.5 9.0% home_+2.5 97.5% away_-2.5 2.5%
total_exact
exact_0 8.6% exact_1 19.0% exact_2 26.1%
exact_3 21.4% exact_4 13.6% exact_5 6.9%
exact_6 2.9% exact_7plus 1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.1% draw 43.7% away 20.3%
total
over_0.5 66.6% under_0.5 33.4% over_1.5 30.0%
under_1.5 70.0% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
btts
yes 17.0% no 83.0%
total_exact
exact_0 33.4% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 20.1%
exact_3 7.3% exact_4plus 2.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.3% draw 40.5% away 25.2%
total
over_0.5 71.9% under_0.5 28.1% over_1.5 36.2%
under_1.5 63.8% over_2.5 13.6% under_2.5 86.4%
btts
yes 21.8% no 78.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.0% H/D 5.4% H/A 1.7%
D/H 15.0% D/D 17.7% D/A 11.0%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.2% A/A 14.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.6% under_7.5 27.4% over_8.5 60.9%
under_8.5 39.1% over_9.5 48.7% under_9.5 51.3%
over_10.5 37.1% under_10.5 62.9% over_11.5 26.9%
under_11.5 73.1% over_12.5 18.6% under_12.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.4% under_3.5 24.6% over_4.5 60.7%
under_4.5 39.3% over_5.5 45.5% under_5.5 54.5%
team_away
over_3.5 57.1% under_3.5 42.9% over_4.5 39.7%
under_4.5 60.3% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 58.5% draw 10.4% away 31.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.1% away_+3.5 72.9% home_-1.5 47.5%
away_+1.5 52.5% home_-0.5 58.5% away_+0.5 41.5%
home_+0.5 68.9% away_-0.5 31.1% home_+1.5 78.0%
away_-1.5 22.0% home_+3.5 90.7% away_-3.5 9.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.0% under_22.5 35.0% over_24.5 52.5%
under_24.5 47.5% over_26.5 40.1% under_26.5 59.9%
over_28.5 28.9% under_28.5 71.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.7% under_10.5 23.3% over_12.5 61.2%
under_12.5 38.8% over_14.5 44.7% under_14.5 55.3%
team_away
over_10.5 52.0% under_10.5 48.0% over_12.5 33.8%
under_12.5 66.2% over_14.5 19.7% under_14.5 80.3%
most
home 65.9% draw 5.7% away 28.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.9% away_+4.5 59.1% home_-2.5 53.6%
away_+2.5 46.4% home_-0.5 65.9% away_+0.5 34.1%
home_+0.5 71.6% away_-0.5 28.4% home_+2.5 81.4%
away_-2.5 18.6% home_+4.5 88.7% away_-4.5 11.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.9% under_6.5 25.1% over_7.5 63.2%
under_7.5 36.8% over_8.5 50.7% under_8.5 49.3%
over_9.5 38.7% under_9.5 61.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.4% under_3.5 30.6% over_4.5 52.6%
under_4.5 47.4% over_5.5 36.8% under_5.5 63.2%
team_away
over_3.5 53.1% under_3.5 46.9% over_4.5 35.1%
under_4.5 64.9% over_5.5 21.1% under_5.5 78.9%
most
home 56.0% draw 12.2% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.4% away_+2.5 68.6% home_-0.5 56.0%
away_+0.5 44.0% home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9%
home_+2.5 86.6% away_-2.5 13.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.0% under_2.5 28.0% over_3.5 51.3%
under_3.5 48.7% over_4.5 31.9% under_4.5 68.1%
over_5.5 17.5% under_5.5 82.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.1% under_1.5 45.9% over_2.5 27.3%
under_2.5 72.7%
team_away
over_1.5 57.2% under_1.5 42.8% over_2.5 30.2%
under_2.5 69.8%
most
home 37.1% draw 21.5% away 41.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.3% away_+1.5 80.7% home_-0.5 37.1%
away_+0.5 62.9% home_+0.5 58.6% away_-0.5 41.4%
home_+1.5 77.4% away_-1.5 22.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 82.8% under_20.5 17.2% over_22.5 71.9%
under_22.5 28.1% over_24.5 58.9% under_24.5 41.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 83.5% under_9.5 16.6% over_11.5 67.6%
under_11.5 32.4% over_13.5 48.9% under_13.5 51.1%
team_away
over_9.5 75.5% under_9.5 24.5% over_11.5 56.6%
under_11.5 43.5% over_13.5 37.2% under_13.5 62.8%
most
home 54.9% draw 6.7% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 34.6% away_+3.5 65.4% home_-0.5 54.9%
away_+0.5 45.2% home_+2.5 73.9% away_-2.5 26.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.4% no 80.6%
home
yes 11.0% no 89.0%
away
yes 9.5% no 90.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Toulouse predictions · Le Havre predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 1ToulouseLe HavreTrack record