Shots

Over 22.5	64.6%	Over 24.5	52.2%	Over 26.5	39.8%	Over 28.5	28.7%
Most: Le Mans	59.9%	Most: Lorient	34.0%
Le Mans Over 13.2	48.4%	Lorient Over 13.2	30.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	74.1%	Over 7.5	62.2%	Over 8.5	49.6%	Over 9.5	37.6%
Most: Le Mans	51.0%	Most: Lorient	36.4%
Le Mans Over 4.2	48.5%	Lorient Over 4.2	38.0%

Cards

Over 2.5	68.2%	Over 3.5	46.7%	Over 4.5	27.8%
Most: Le Mans	40.2%	Most: Lorient	37.6%
Le Mans Over 1.8	53.4%	Lorient Over 1.8	51.5%

Le Mans: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Habib Diallo	1.79	0.55	0.18	35.8%	42.3%	13.5%
Djibril Sidibe	0.27	0.13	0.06	10.2%	2.1%	4.8%

Lorient: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Aiyegun Tosin	2.52	0.97	0.41	33.8%	29.0%	16.0%
Jean-Victor Makengo	1.89	0.66	0.21	36.8%	37.7%	13.6%
Panos Katseris	0.81	0.51	0.1	22.2%	6.1%	4.8%
Noah Cadiou	1.02	0.37	0.12	24.7%	18.5%	8.8%
Théo Le Bris	0.85	0.34	0.09	22.1%	13.0%	6.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Le Mans clean sheet	22.8%
Lorient clean sheet	30.9%
Le Mans win to nil	15.1%
Lorient win to nil	23.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	29.4%	draw	27.0%	away	43.6%

double_chance

1X	56.4%	12	73.0%	X2	70.6%

dnb

home	40.3%	away	59.7%

btts

yes	53.9%	no	46.1%

clean_sheet

home	22.8%	away	31.0%

win_to_nil

home	15.1%	away	23.3%

winning_margin

home_by_1	17.2%	home_by_2	8.3%	home_by_3plus	3.9%
away_by_1	21.9%	away_by_2	13.3%	away_by_3plus	8.4%

correct_score

0-0	7.7%	0-1	9.8%	0-2	7.7%
0-3	3.8%	0-4	1.4%	0-5	0.4%
1-0	7.7%	1-1	12.9%	1-2	9.0%
1-3	4.5%	1-4	1.6%	1-5	0.5%
2-0	4.9%	2-1	7.2%	2-2	5.3%
2-3	2.6%	2-4	1.0%	2-5	0.3%
3-0	1.9%	3-1	2.8%	3-2	2.1%
3-3	1.0%	3-4	0.4%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	0.6%	4-1	0.8%	4-2	0.6%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.2%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.5%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.9%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	92.3%	under_0.5	7.7%	over_1.5	74.8%
under_1.5	25.2%	over_2.5	49.4%	under_2.5	50.6%
over_3.5	27.5%	under_3.5	72.5%	over_4.5	13.0%
under_4.5	87.0%	over_5.5	5.3%	under_5.5	94.7%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	69.0%	under_0.5	31.0%	over_1.5	32.7%
under_1.5	67.3%	over_2.5	11.4%	under_2.5	88.6%

team_away

over_0.5	77.2%	under_0.5	22.8%	over_1.5	43.5%
under_1.5	56.5%	over_2.5	18.6%	under_2.5	81.5%

most

home	29.4%	draw	27.0%	away	43.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	3.9%	away_+2.5	96.1%	home_-1.5	12.2%
away_+1.5	87.8%	home_-0.5	29.4%	away_+0.5	70.6%
home_+0.5	56.4%	away_-0.5	43.6%	home_+1.5	78.3%
away_-1.5	21.7%	home_+2.5	91.6%	away_-2.5	8.4%

total_exact

exact_0	7.7%	exact_1	17.5%	exact_2	25.4%
exact_3	21.9%	exact_4	14.5%	exact_5	7.7%
exact_6	3.4%	exact_7plus	1.9%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	29.3%	draw	38.8%	away	31.9%

total

over_0.5	74.7%	under_0.5	25.4%	over_1.5	39.9%
under_1.5	60.2%	over_2.5	16.0%	under_2.5	84.0%

btts

yes	24.6%	no	75.4%

total_exact

exact_0	25.4%	exact_1	34.8%	exact_2	23.9%
exact_3	10.9%	exact_4plus	5.1%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	36.6%	draw	36.2%	away	27.2%

total

over_0.5	78.2%	under_0.5	21.8%	over_1.5	45.0%
under_1.5	55.0%	over_2.5	19.7%	under_2.5	80.3%

btts

yes	28.1%	no	71.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	23.1%	H/D	4.5%	H/A	1.7%
D/H	14.2%	D/D	14.0%	D/A	10.5%
A/H	3.0%	A/D	6.2%	A/A	22.7%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	73.2%	under_7.5	26.8%	over_8.5	61.6%
under_8.5	38.4%	over_9.5	49.5%	under_9.5	50.5%
over_10.5	37.8%	under_10.5	62.2%	over_11.5	27.6%
under_11.5	72.4%	over_12.5	19.1%	under_12.5	80.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	75.0%	under_3.5	25.0%	over_4.5	60.1%
under_4.5	39.9%	over_5.5	44.9%	under_5.5	55.1%

team_away

over_3.5	58.8%	under_3.5	41.2%	over_4.5	41.4%
under_4.5	58.6%	over_5.5	26.9%	under_5.5	73.1%

most

home	57.0%	draw	10.5%	away	32.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	26.0%	away_+3.5	74.0%	home_-1.5	46.0%
away_+1.5	54.0%	home_-0.5	57.0%	away_+0.5	43.0%
home_+0.5	67.5%	away_-0.5	32.5%	home_+1.5	76.7%
away_-1.5	23.3%	home_+3.5	89.9%	away_-3.5	10.1%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	64.6%	under_22.5	35.4%	over_24.5	52.2%
under_24.5	47.8%	over_26.5	39.8%	under_26.5	60.2%
over_28.5	28.7%	under_28.5	71.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	73.3%	under_10.5	26.7%	over_12.5	56.9%
under_12.5	43.1%	over_14.5	40.3%	under_14.5	59.7%

team_away

over_10.5	56.5%	under_10.5	43.5%	over_12.5	38.2%
under_12.5	61.8%	over_14.5	23.2%	under_14.5	76.8%

most

home	59.9%	draw	6.0%	away	34.1%

handicap

home_-4.5	34.9%	away_+4.5	65.1%	home_-2.5	47.3%
away_+2.5	52.7%	home_-0.5	59.9%	away_+0.5	40.1%
home_+0.5	66.0%	away_-0.5	34.1%	home_+2.5	76.8%
away_-2.5	23.2%	home_+4.5	85.3%	away_-4.5	14.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	74.1%	under_6.5	25.9%	over_7.5	62.2%
under_7.5	37.8%	over_8.5	49.6%	under_8.5	50.4%
over_9.5	37.6%	under_9.5	62.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	65.8%	under_3.5	34.2%	over_4.5	48.5%
under_4.5	51.5%	over_5.5	32.8%	under_5.5	67.2%

team_away

over_3.5	56.0%	under_3.5	44.0%	over_4.5	38.0%
under_4.5	62.0%	over_5.5	23.4%	under_5.5	76.6%

most

home	51.0%	draw	12.6%	away	36.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	27.0%	away_+2.5	73.0%	home_-0.5	51.0%
away_+0.5	49.0%	home_+0.5	63.6%	away_-0.5	36.4%
home_+2.5	83.8%	away_-2.5	16.2%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	68.2%	under_2.5	31.8%	over_3.5	46.7%
under_3.5	53.3%	over_4.5	27.8%	under_4.5	72.2%
over_5.5	14.5%	under_5.5	85.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	53.4%	under_1.5	46.6%	over_2.5	26.7%
under_2.5	73.3%

team_away

over_1.5	51.5%	under_1.5	48.5%	over_2.5	25.0%
under_2.5	75.0%

most

home	40.2%	draw	22.2%	away	37.6%

handicap

home_-1.5	21.2%	away_+1.5	78.9%	home_-0.5	40.2%
away_+0.5	59.8%	home_+0.5	62.4%	away_-0.5	37.6%
home_+1.5	80.8%	away_-1.5	19.2%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	66.8%	under_20.5	33.2%	over_22.5	52.4%
under_22.5	47.6%	over_24.5	38.1%	under_24.5	61.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	75.4%	under_9.5	24.6%	over_11.5	56.3%
under_11.5	43.7%	over_13.5	37.0%	under_13.5	63.0%

team_away

over_9.5	60.1%	under_9.5	39.9%	over_11.5	38.7%
under_11.5	61.3%	over_13.5	21.4%	under_13.5	78.6%

most

home	58.7%	draw	7.0%	away	34.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	36.9%	away_+3.5	63.1%	home_-0.5	58.7%
away_+0.5	41.3%	home_+2.5	78.1%	away_-2.5	21.9%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	18.4%	no	81.6%

home

yes	16.1%	no	83.9%

away

yes	2.8%	no	97.2%