AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
St EtienneSt EtienneWLDWW
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1019:45UK
NantesNantesWLWDL

Saint-Etienne 1-0 Nantes cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.4%

Result

St Etienne1-0Nantes
7 yellow cardsSt Etienne 3, Nantes 4
0 red cardsSt Etienne 0, Nantes 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 51.6% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 89.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Gael Angoula

Recorded match referee.

Gael Angoula in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 23 6
Goals 2.87 3.00
Yellow cards 3.83 3.67
Red cards 0.13 0.17
Corners 11.3 9.8
Fouls 23.2 26.8
Both teams scored 56% 67%
Over 2.5 goals 48% 50%
Home wins 35% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 St Etienne vs Nantes 1-0 1 No 7 0 13 28
17 Oct 2026 Metz vs Sochaux 3-2 5 Yes 2 0 10 29
18 Sep 2026 Rodez vs Nancy 3-4 7 Yes 3 0 9 22
4 Sep 2026 Grenoble vs Annecy 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 11 24
22 Aug 2026 Metz vs Laval 1-1 2 Yes 5 1 11 30
8 Aug 2026 Clermont vs Reims 0-0 0 No 2 0 5 28
3 May 2026 Strasbourg vs ToulouseLigue 1 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 11 22
25 Apr 2026 Reims vs Nancy 1-1 2 Yes 10 1 4 33
5 Apr 2026 Lorient vs Paris FCLigue 1 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 11 14
15 Mar 2026 Metz vs ToulouseLigue 1 3-4 7 Yes 3 0 8 23

Gael Angoula referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for St Etienne vs Nantes. It tips Nantes for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.3% 27.8%
3.5 cards 51.6% 48.4%
4.5 cards 32.2% 67.8%
5.5 cards 17.7% 82.3%

Who picks up more cards

St Etienne
34.0%
Level
21.3%
Nantes
44.8%

Team cards lines

St Etienne

Over 1.5
51.8%
Over 2.5
25.3%

Nantes

Over 1.5
59.7%
Over 2.5
32.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is St Etienne's; Nantes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

St Etienne line St Etienne Nantes
-1.5 17.1% 82.9%
-0.5 34.0% 66.1%
+0.5 55.2% 44.8%
+1.5 74.7% 25.3%

Red card

Any red card11.0%
St Etienne red card8.2%
Nantes red card3.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 93.0% 7.0%
22.5 fouls 86.4% 13.6%
24.5 fouls 76.8% 23.2%
St EtienneSt Etienne

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means St Etienne at home and Nantes away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NantesNantes
Statistic
St Etienne
Nantes
Yellow cards per game
1.2
·

Matches with card data
2
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.3% for over 2.5 to 17.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.6%. On the card count, Nantes are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 21.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, St Etienne over 1.5 cards sits at 51.8% and Nantes at 59.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.0% (St Etienne 8.2%, Nantes 3.1%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

51.6%Over 3.5 cards
11.0%Any red card
44.8%Most cards: Nantes
51.8%St Etienne over 1.5 cards
59.7%Nantes over 1.5 cards
86.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianNantes are the pick to collect more cards at 44.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
St EtienneSt Etienne

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NantesNantes
Statistic
St Etienne
Nantes
fouls per game
15.2
·

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in St Etienne vs Nantes?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.6% for St Etienne vs Nantes.
Will there be a red card in St Etienne vs Nantes?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in St Etienne vs Nantes?
Before kickoff, the model rated Nantes to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 2Saint-Etienne fixtures and statsNantes fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.