Primeira LigaSporting CP vs 
Arouca Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 44.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.7% for over 7.5 to 17.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.7%. Between the two sides, Sporting CP are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.1%, with a level count at 10.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.6% | 82.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
69.6%
54.9%
40.8%
55.4%
39.3%
26.0%
Corner handicap
| Sporting CP line | Sporting CP | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| -1.5 | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| -0.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| +0.5 | 65.3% | 34.8% |
This season (2026/27)
3.0Arouca corners won per game5.5Arouca corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Sporting CP.
In-depth analysis
44.7%Over 9.5 corners54.9%Sporting CP over 4.5 corners39.3%Arouca over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Sporting CP over 4.5 corners sits at 54.9% and Arouca at 39.3%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Sporting CP vs Arouca?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.7% for Sporting CP vs Arouca.
Which team will win the corner count in Sporting CP vs Arouca?
The model rates Sporting CP to win the corner count at 55.1%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
