Primeira Liga
Sp Braga vs Sporting CP Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 40.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 52.8% for over 22.5 to 20.4% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. Head to head on shots, Sp Braga are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.2%, with a level count at 6.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 52.8% | 47.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.4% | 79.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
65.5%
48.9%
33.5%
46.9%
30.1%
17.5%
Shot handicap
| Sp Braga line | Sp Braga | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| -2.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| -0.5 | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| +0.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.3% | 70.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
13.4Sp Braga shots per game8.4Sp Braga shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Sp Braga.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
40.6%Over 24.5 shots48.9%Sp Braga over 12.5 shots30.1%Sporting CP over 12.5 shots53.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Sp Braga over 12.5 shots sits at 48.9% and Sporting CP at 30.1%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Sp Braga vs Sporting CP?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 40.6% for Sp Braga vs Sporting CP.
Which team will have more shots in Sp Braga vs Sporting CP?
The model rates Sp Braga to take more shots at 60.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
