Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Groningen49.5%
Win probability · fair 2.02
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely82.9%Fair 1.21
Draw or GroningenLikely73.2%Fair 1.37
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.3%Fair 1.56
Model read
▾
"50% on Groningen is a measurement, not a promise." Excelsior Rotterdam versus Groningen on 11 October 2026 tilts towards Groningen in our numbers (50%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 61% with both teams to score at 62%. Excelsior Rotterdam are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Over 11.5 corners35.7%@ 2.80
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals61.3%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners54.4%@ 1.84
Excelsior Rotterdam or draw50.4%@ 1.98
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.8%@ 9.28
1-2 correct score9.5%@ 10.53
0-1 correct score7.3%@ 13.70
Model vs market
Excelsior
26.7%
Draw
23.7%
Groningen
49.5%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely82.9%Fair 1.21
Over 2.5Likely61.3%Fair 1.63
BTTS · YesLikely62.1%Fair 1.61
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.3%Fair 1.56
Over 9.5 cornersClose call54.4%Fair 1.84
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely44.7%Fair 2.24
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely35.7%Fair 2.80
Most cornersExcelsior Rotterdam55.3%Groningen34.7%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.7%Fair 1.36
Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.5%Fair 1.58
Over 26.5 shotsClose call52.4%Fair 1.91
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely41.4%Fair 2.41
Recent shot volume
Groningen14.7 taken15.3 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.582.9%2.561.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.3%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Excelsior Rotterdam win3.74
Draw4.21
Groningen win2.02
Both teams to score1.61
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.63
Over 3.5 goals2.57
Over 4.5 goals4.69
Excelsior Rotterdam most3.74
Groningen most2.02
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.75
Over 10.5 corners2.19
Excelsior Rotterdam most1.80
Groningen most2.87
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.84
Over 3.5 cards3.09
Over 4.5 cards6.05
Over 5.5 cards13.59
Excelsior Rotterdam most3.42
Groningen most2.15
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.48
Over 9.5 SoT1.75
Excelsior Rotterdam most2.10
Groningen most2.41
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.58
Over 26.5 shots1.91
Over 28.5 shots2.41
Excelsior Rotterdam most1.71
Groningen most2.77
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.08
Over 22.5 fouls3.02
Over 24.5 fouls4.79
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
73.7%
Over 24.5
63.5%
Over 26.5
52.4%
Over 28.5
41.4%
Most: Excelsior Rotterdam
58.4%
Most: Groningen
36.2%
Excelsior Rotterdam Over 13.2
56.3%
Groningen Over 13.2
40.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
85.6%
Over 7.5
77.4%
Over 8.5
67.7%
Over 9.5
57.1%
Most: Excelsior Rotterdam
47.6%
Most: Groningen
41.5%
Excelsior Rotterdam Over 4.2
58.7%
Groningen Over 4.2
54.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
54.4%
Over 3.5
32.3%
Over 4.5
16.5%
Most: Excelsior Rotterdam
29.2%
Most: Groningen
46.5%
Excelsior Rotterdam Over 1.8
35.0%
Groningen Over 1.8
48.2%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Excelsior Rotterdam clean sheet
15.7%
Groningen clean sheet
26.5%
Excelsior Rotterdam win to nil
11.0%
Groningen win to nil
21.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
26.7%
draw
23.7%
away
49.5%
double_chance
1X
50.5%
12
76.3%
X2
73.3%
dnb
home
35.1%
away
64.9%
btts
yes
62.1%
no
37.9%
clean_sheet
home
15.7%
away
26.9%
win_to_nil
home
11.0%
away
22.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1
15.2%
home_by_2
7.7%
home_by_3plus
3.9%
away_by_1
21.5%
away_by_2
15.2%
away_by_3plus
12.8%
correct_score
0-0
4.7%
0-1
7.3%
0-2
7.2%
0-3
4.5%
0-4
2.1%
0-5
0.8%
1-0
5.0%
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.5%
1-3
5.9%
1-4
2.7%
1-5
1.0%
2-0
3.7%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
2-3
3.9%
2-4
1.8%
2-5
0.7%
3-0
1.6%
3-1
3.0%
3-2
2.7%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.3%
4-0
0.5%
4-1
1.0%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
10.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.3%
under_0.5
4.7%
over_1.5
82.9%
under_1.5
17.1%
over_2.5
61.3%
under_2.5
38.7%
over_3.5
39.0%
under_3.5
61.0%
over_4.5
21.3%
under_4.5
78.7%
over_5.5
10.1%
under_5.5
89.9%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.1%
team_home
over_0.5
73.1%
under_0.5
26.9%
over_1.5
37.8%
under_1.5
62.2%
over_2.5
14.6%
under_2.5
85.4%
team_away
over_0.5
84.3%
under_0.5
15.7%
over_1.5
55.2%
under_1.5
44.8%
over_2.5
28.3%
under_2.5
71.7%
most
home
26.7%
draw
23.7%
away
49.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
3.9%
away_+2.5
96.1%
home_-1.5
11.6%
away_+1.5
88.4%
home_-0.5
26.7%
away_+0.5
73.3%
home_+0.5
50.5%
away_-0.5
49.5%
home_+1.5
72.0%
away_-1.5
28.0%
home_+2.5
87.2%
away_-2.5
12.8%
total_exact
exact_0
4.7%
exact_1
12.3%
exact_2
21.7%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
17.7%
exact_5
11.2%
exact_6
5.9%
exact_7plus
4.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
31.4%
draw
35.9%
away
32.7%
total
over_0.5
78.9%
under_0.5
21.1%
over_1.5
46.0%
under_1.5
54.0%
over_2.5
20.5%
under_2.5
79.5%
btts
yes
29.2%
no
70.8%
total_exact
exact_0
21.1%
exact_1
32.8%
exact_2
25.5%
exact_3
13.2%
exact_4plus
7.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
36.8%
draw
35.1%
away
28.1%
total
over_0.5
79.9%
under_0.5
20.1%
over_1.5
47.7%
under_1.5
52.3%
over_2.5
21.8%
under_2.5
78.2%
btts
yes
30.2%
no
69.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
24.7%
H/D
4.8%
H/A
1.9%
D/H
13.2%
D/D
12.6%
D/A
10.1%
A/H
3.2%
A/D
6.1%
A/A
23.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
78.7%
under_7.5
21.3%
over_8.5
68.5%
under_8.5
31.5%
over_9.5
57.1%
under_9.5
42.9%
over_10.5
45.6%
under_10.5
54.4%
over_11.5
34.8%
under_11.5
65.2%
over_12.5
25.5%
under_12.5
74.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.9%
under_3.5
23.1%
over_4.5
63.2%
under_4.5
36.8%
over_5.5
48.9%
under_5.5
51.1%
team_away
over_3.5
63.8%
under_3.5
36.2%
over_4.5
47.5%
under_4.5
52.5%
over_5.5
32.9%
under_5.5
67.1%
most
home
55.5%
draw
9.6%
away
34.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.2%
away_+3.5
72.8%
home_-1.5
45.6%
away_+1.5
54.4%
home_-0.5
55.5%
away_+0.5
44.5%
home_+0.5
65.2%
away_-0.5
34.8%
home_+1.5
73.9%
away_-1.5
26.1%
home_+3.5
87.2%
away_-3.5
12.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
73.7%
under_22.5
26.3%
over_24.5
63.5%
under_24.5
36.5%
over_26.5
52.4%
under_26.5
47.6%
over_28.5
41.4%
under_28.5
58.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
77.3%
under_10.5
22.7%
over_12.5
63.6%
under_12.5
36.4%
over_14.5
48.9%
under_14.5
51.1%
team_away
over_10.5
64.0%
under_10.5
36.0%
over_12.5
47.8%
under_12.5
52.2%
over_14.5
33.0%
under_14.5
67.0%
most
home
58.5%
draw
5.4%
away
36.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
36.2%
away_+4.5
63.8%
home_-2.5
47.3%
away_+2.5
52.8%
home_-0.5
58.5%
away_+0.5
41.6%
home_+0.5
63.8%
away_-0.5
36.2%
home_+2.5
73.8%
away_-2.5
26.2%
home_+4.5
82.1%
away_-4.5
17.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
85.6%
under_6.5
14.4%
over_7.5
77.4%
under_7.5
22.6%
over_8.5
67.7%
under_8.5
32.3%
over_9.5
57.1%
under_9.5
42.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.7%
under_3.5
26.4%
over_4.5
58.7%
under_4.5
41.3%
over_5.5
43.8%
under_5.5
56.2%
team_away
over_3.5
70.2%
under_3.5
29.8%
over_4.5
54.5%
under_4.5
45.5%
over_5.5
39.5%
under_5.5
60.5%
most
home
47.6%
draw
10.9%
away
41.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
27.2%
away_+2.5
72.8%
home_-0.5
47.6%
away_+0.5
52.4%
home_+0.5
58.5%
away_-0.5
41.5%
home_+2.5
77.6%
away_-2.5
22.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
54.4%
under_2.5
45.6%
over_3.5
32.3%
under_3.5
67.7%
over_4.5
16.5%
under_4.5
83.5%
over_5.5
7.4%
under_5.5
92.6%
odd_even
odd
49.8%
even
50.2%
team_home
over_1.5
35.0%
under_1.5
65.0%
over_2.5
13.0%
under_2.5
87.0%
team_away
over_1.5
48.2%
under_1.5
51.8%
over_2.5
22.6%
under_2.5
77.4%
most
home
29.2%
draw
24.3%
away
46.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
12.3%
away_+1.5
87.7%
home_-0.5
29.2%
away_+0.5
70.8%
home_+0.5
53.5%
away_-0.5
46.5%
home_+1.5
75.6%
away_-1.5
24.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
48.1%
under_20.5
51.9%
over_22.5
33.1%
under_22.5
66.9%
over_24.5
20.9%
under_24.5
79.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
52.2%
under_9.5
47.8%
over_11.5
30.8%
under_11.5
69.2%
over_13.5
15.3%
under_13.5
84.7%
team_away
over_9.5
59.1%
under_9.5
40.9%
over_11.5
37.5%
under_11.5
62.5%
over_13.5
20.3%
under_13.5
79.8%
most
home
41.1%
draw
8.0%
away
51.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
20.3%
away_+3.5
79.7%
home_-0.5
41.1%
away_+0.5
59.0%
home_+2.5
64.7%
away_-2.5
35.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
10.0%
no
90.0%
home
yes
4.5%
no
95.5%
away
yes
5.7%
no
94.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Eredivisie
Groningen