AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
SociedadSociedadWLWWW
Full time2-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1017:30UK18°C · Rain
LevanteLevanteLLDDW

Real Sociedad 2-1 Levante cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined36.5%

Result

Sociedad2-1Levante
4 yellow cardsSociedad 1, Levante 3
0 red cardsSociedad 0, Levante 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 63.5% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 69.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards63.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Javier Alberola Rojas

Recorded match referee.

Javier Alberola Rojas in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 16 6
Goals 2.94 2.17
Yellow cards 4.56 4.67
Red cards 0.25 0.17
Corners 9.4 8.8
Fouls 28.9 32.0
Both teams scored 69% 67%
Over 2.5 goals 56% 50%
Home wins 38% 50%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Sociedad vs Levante 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 5 27
11 Oct 2026 Elche vs Celta 0-0 0 No 4 0 7 40
20 Sep 2026 Getafe vs Malaga 1-0 1 No 6 0 14 32
12 Sep 2026 Santander vs Alaves 2-1 3 Yes 5 1 10 33
29 Aug 2026 Sevilla vs Ath Madrid 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 6 36
24 Aug 2026 Malaga vs La Coruna 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 11 24
4 Jan 2026 Mallorca vs Girona 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 9 24
21 Dec 2025 Villarreal vs Barcelona 0-2 2 No 2 1 15 18
6 Dec 2025 Alaves vs Sociedad 1-0 1 No 4 0 13 36
1 Dec 2025 Vallecano vs Valencia 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 15 20

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sociedad vs Levante. It tips Levante for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 80.7% 19.3%
3.5 cards 63.5% 36.5%
4.5 cards 44.9% 55.1%
5.5 cards 28.5% 71.5%

Who picks up more cards

Sociedad
37.6%
Level
19.2%
Levante
43.2%

Team cards lines

Sociedad

Over 1.5
61.9%
Over 2.5
35.7%

Levante

Over 1.5
65.6%
Over 2.5
39.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sociedad's; Levante gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sociedad line Sociedad Levante
-1.5 21.3% 78.7%
-0.5 37.6% 62.4%
+0.5 56.8% 43.2%
+1.5 74.2% 25.8%

Red card

Any red card30.3%
Sociedad red card23.4%
Levante red card9.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 75.7% 24.3%
22.5 fouls 63.0% 37.0%
24.5 fouls 49.2% 50.8%
SociedadSociedad

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sociedad at home and Levante away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LevanteLevante
Statistic
Sociedad
Levante
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
3.0

Matches with card data
1
5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 63.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.7% for over 2.5 to 28.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. Between the two sides, Levante are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 19.2%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Sociedad over 1.5 cards sits at 61.9% and Levante at 65.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 30.3% (Sociedad 23.4%, Levante 9.0%).

63.5%Over 3.5 cards
30.3%Any red card
43.2%Most cards: Levante
61.9%Sociedad over 1.5 cards
65.6%Levante over 1.5 cards
63.0%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 30.3%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianLevante are the pick to collect more cards at 43.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 44.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Sociedad vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 63.5% for Sociedad vs Levante.
Will there be a red card in Sociedad vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 30.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sociedad vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated Levante to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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La LigaReal Sociedad fixtures and statsLevante fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.