AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
Sociedad BSociedad BDDWLL
Full time2-3Sun, 4 Oct 20264/1013:00UK
GranadaGranadaWLDLL

Sociedad B 2-3 Granada cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined76.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined23.1%

Result

Sociedad B2-3Granada
5 yellow cardsSociedad B 3, Granada 2
0 red cardsSociedad B 0, Granada 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 76.9% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 82.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards76.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sociedad B vs Granada. It tips Granada for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 89.5% 10.5%
3.5 cards 76.9% 23.1%
4.5 cards 60.3% 39.7%
5.5 cards 42.8% 57.2%

Who picks up more cards

Sociedad B
39.6%
Level
17.9%
Granada
42.5%

Team cards lines

Sociedad B

Over 1.5
73.0%
Over 2.5
47.8%

Granada

Over 1.5
74.6%
Over 2.5
49.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sociedad B's; Granada gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sociedad B line Sociedad B Granada
-1.5 23.8% 76.2%
-0.5 39.6% 60.4%
+0.5 57.5% 42.5%
+1.5 73.8% 26.2%

Red card

Any red card17.1%
Sociedad B red card12.7%
Granada red card5.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 90.1% 9.9%
22.5 fouls 82.3% 17.7%
24.5 fouls 72.0% 28.0%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 76.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 89.5% for over 2.5 to 42.8% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.8%. On the card count, Granada are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 17.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Sociedad B over 1.5 cards sits at 73.0% and Granada at 74.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.1% (Sociedad B 12.7%, Granada 5.1%). This season Sociedad B have averaged 2.7 cards a game and Granada 2.0.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

76.9%Over 3.5 cards
17.1%Any red card
42.5%Most cards: Granada
73.0%Sociedad B over 1.5 cards
74.6%Granada over 1.5 cards
82.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 76.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianGranada are the pick to collect more cards at 42.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 5.5 cards: over sits at 42.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Sociedad BSociedad B

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GranadaGranada
Statistic
Sociedad B
Granada
cards per game
2.7
2.0

fouls per game
18.3
12.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sociedad B vs Granada?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 76.9% for Sociedad B vs Granada.
Will there be a red card in Sociedad B vs Granada?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sociedad B vs Granada?
Before kickoff, the model rated Granada to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 17.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónSociedad B fixtures and statsGranada fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.