AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
LincolnLincolnLLLDW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1012:30UK
BirminghamBirminghamDWWWL

Lincoln vs Birmingham corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined56.9%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined43.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners56.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Lincoln.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 78.8% 21.2%
8.5 corners 68.4% 31.6%
9.5 corners 56.9% 43.1%
10.5 corners 45.2% 54.9%
11.5 corners 34.2% 65.8%
12.5 corners 24.8% 75.2%

Who wins the corner count

Lincoln
50.2%
Level
10.6%
Birmingham
39.2%

Team corners lines

Lincoln

Over 3.5
75.2%
Over 4.5
60.2%
Over 5.5
44.9%

Birmingham

Over 3.5
68.5%
Over 4.5
52.0%
Over 5.5
36.5%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lincoln's; Birmingham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lincoln line Lincoln Birmingham
-1.5 39.7% 60.4%
-0.5 50.2% 49.8%
+0.5 60.9% 39.2%
+1.5 70.7% 29.3%
LincolnLincoln

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lincoln at home and Birmingham away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BirminghamBirmingham
Statistic
Lincoln
Birmingham
Corners won per game at this venue
4.0
6.2

Corners conceded per game at this venue
5.5
5.2

First-half corners won per game
2.0
2.5

Second-half corners won per game
1.6
3.0

Matches with more corners than the opponent
16.7%
66.7%

Matches with corner data
12
12

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 56.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 78.8% for over 7.5 to 24.8% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. Between the two sides, Lincoln are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 50.2%, with a level count at 10.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Lincoln over 4.5 corners sits at 60.2% and Birmingham at 52.0%. This season Lincoln have averaged 3.5 corners won a game and Birmingham 5.5.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

56.9%Over 9.5 corners
50.2%Most corners: Lincoln
60.2%Lincoln over 4.5 corners
52.0%Birmingham over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderLincoln are the pick to win the corner count at 50.2%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 45.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
LincolnLincoln

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BirminghamBirmingham
Statistic
Lincoln
Birmingham
corners won per game
3.5
5.5

corners conceded per game
7.9
4.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Lincoln vs Birmingham?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 56.9% for Lincoln vs Birmingham.
Which team will win the corner count in Lincoln vs Birmingham?
The model rates Lincoln to win the corner count at 50.2%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Lincoln and Birmingham average this season?
Lincoln have won 3.5 corners a game this season and Birmingham 5.5.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipLincoln fixtures and statsBirmingham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.