Süper Lig
Samsunspor vs 
Trabzonspor Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 56.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.0% for over 22.5 to 33.1% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. Head to head on shots, Samsunspor are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.3%, with a level count at 5.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 44.4% | 55.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.1% | 66.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.2%
59.9%
44.0%
58.6%
40.9%
26.0%
Shot handicap
| Samsunspor line | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| -2.5 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| -0.5 | 60.3% | 39.8% |
| +0.5 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 63.7% | 36.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.6% | 60.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.2Samsunspor shots per game16.8Samsunspor shots faced per game15.6Trabzonspor shots per game12.6Trabzonspor shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Samsunspor.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
56.3%Over 24.5 shots59.9%Samsunspor over 12.5 shots40.9%Trabzonspor over 12.5 shots63.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Samsunspor over 12.5 shots sits at 59.9% and Trabzonspor at 40.9%. This season Samsunspor have averaged 14.2 shots a game and Trabzonspor 15.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 56.3% for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor.
Which team will have more shots in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates Samsunspor to take more shots at 60.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
