Süper Lig
Gaziantep vs 
Corum Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 66.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 83.4% for over 2.5 to 30.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.0%. Between the two sides, Corum are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 19.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.4% | 16.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.8% | 69.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.9%
37.0%
69.0%
42.8%
Card handicap
| Gaziantep line | Gaziantep | Corum |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| -0.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| +1.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 65.2% | 34.8% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Gaziantep cards per game13.4Gaziantep fouls per game1.8Corum cards per game12.4Corum fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gaziantep vs Corum. It tips Corum for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
66.8%Over 3.5 cards19.0%Any red card63.9%Gaziantep over 1.5 cards69.0%Corum over 1.5 cards77.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Gaziantep over 1.5 cards sits at 63.9% and Corum at 69.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.0% (Gaziantep 5.7%, Corum 14.1%). This season Gaziantep have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Corum 1.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Gaziantep vs Corum?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 66.8% for Gaziantep vs Corum.
Will there be a red card in Gaziantep vs Corum?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gaziantep vs Corum?
The model rates Corum to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
