Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Fenerbahce62.9%
Win probability · fair 1.59
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely84.6%Fair 1.18
Draw or FenerbahceVery likely83.2%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5 goalsLikely64.1%Fair 1.56
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Fenerbahce at 63% against Çaykur Rizespor, Süper Lig, 10 October 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 64% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. Çaykur Rizespor are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners38.5%@ 2.60
Çaykur Rizespor or draw37.1%@ 2.70
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners59.3%@ 1.69
Both teams to score59.2%@ 1.69
Over 9.5 corners48.6%@ 2.06
Random finds
1-2 correct score9.8%@ 10.19
1-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.80
0-2 correct score9.1%@ 10.96
Model vs market
Rizespor
16.8%
Draw
20.3%
Fenerbahce
62.9%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely84.6%Fair 1.18
Over 2.5Likely64.1%Fair 1.56
BTTS · YesClose call59.2%Fair 1.69
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.3%Fair 1.69
Over 9.5 cornersClose call48.6%Fair 2.06
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely38.5%Fair 2.60
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot29.5%Fair 3.39
Most cornersÇaykur Rizespor46.7%Fenerbahce42.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely68.1%Fair 1.47
Over 24.5 shotsClose call56.4%Fair 1.77
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely44.5%Fair 2.25
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely33.3%Fair 3.01
Recent shot volume
Fenerbahce18.3 taken12.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.584.6%2.564.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.564.1%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Çaykur Rizespor win5.96
Draw4.93
Fenerbahce win1.59
Both teams to score1.69
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.56
Over 3.5 goals2.38
Over 4.5 goals4.21
Çaykur Rizespor most5.96
Fenerbahce most1.59
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.62
Over 9.5 corners2.01
Over 10.5 corners2.62
Çaykur Rizespor most2.14
Fenerbahce most2.36
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.17
Over 3.5 cards1.43
Over 4.5 cards1.93
Over 5.5 cards2.91
Çaykur Rizespor most2.38
Fenerbahce most2.55
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.54
Over 8.5 SoT1.89
Over 9.5 SoT2.43
Çaykur Rizespor most2.36
Fenerbahce most2.21
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.77
Over 26.5 shots2.25
Over 28.5 shots3.01
Çaykur Rizespor most1.79
Fenerbahce most2.62
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.18
Over 22.5 fouls1.36
Over 24.5 fouls1.67
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
68.1%
Over 24.5
56.4%
Over 26.5
44.5%
Over 28.5
33.3%
Most: Çaykur Rizespor
55.9%
Most: Fenerbahce
38.2%
Çaykur Rizespor Over 13.2
48.9%
Fenerbahce Over 13.2
36.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
76.4%
Over 7.5
65.1%
Over 8.5
53.0%
Over 9.5
41.1%
Most: Çaykur Rizespor
42.4%
Most: Fenerbahce
45.2%
Çaykur Rizespor Over 4.2
44.7%
Fenerbahce Over 4.2
46.7%
Cards
Over 2.5
85.4%
Over 3.5
70.1%
Over 4.5
51.8%
Most: Çaykur Rizespor
41.9%
Most: Fenerbahce
39.2%
Çaykur Rizespor Over 1.8
69.6%
Fenerbahce Over 1.8
67.9%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Çaykur Rizespor clean sheet
10.8%
Fenerbahce clean sheet
33.2%
Çaykur Rizespor win to nil
6.7%
Fenerbahce win to nil
29.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
16.8%
draw
20.3%
away
62.9%
double_chance
1X
37.1%
12
79.7%
X2
83.2%
dnb
home
21.1%
away
79.0%
btts
yes
59.2%
no
40.8%
clean_sheet
home
10.8%
away
34.1%
win_to_nil
home
6.7%
away
30.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
10.6%
home_by_2
4.4%
home_by_3plus
1.8%
away_by_1
22.4%
away_by_2
19.0%
away_by_3plus
21.6%
correct_score
0-0
4.1%
0-1
7.8%
0-2
9.1%
0-3
6.8%
0-4
3.8%
0-5
1.7%
1-0
3.5%
1-1
9.3%
1-2
9.8%
1-3
7.3%
1-4
4.1%
1-5
1.8%
2-0
2.1%
2-1
4.7%
2-2
5.3%
2-3
3.9%
2-4
2.2%
2-5
1.0%
3-0
0.8%
3-1
1.7%
3-2
1.9%
3-3
1.4%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.4%
4-0
0.2%
4-1
0.5%
4-2
0.5%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
2.7%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
200.0%
p
9.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.9%
under_0.5
4.1%
over_1.5
84.6%
under_1.5
15.4%
over_2.5
64.1%
under_2.5
35.9%
over_3.5
42.0%
under_3.5
58.0%
over_4.5
23.8%
under_4.5
76.2%
over_5.5
11.7%
under_5.5
88.3%
odd_even
odd
49.1%
even
50.9%
team_home
over_0.5
65.9%
under_0.5
34.1%
over_1.5
29.2%
under_1.5
70.8%
over_2.5
9.5%
under_2.5
90.5%
team_away
over_0.5
89.2%
under_0.5
10.8%
over_1.5
65.1%
under_1.5
34.9%
over_2.5
38.4%
under_2.5
61.6%
most
home
16.8%
draw
20.3%
away
62.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
1.8%
away_+2.5
98.3%
home_-1.5
6.2%
away_+1.5
93.8%
home_-0.5
16.8%
away_+0.5
83.2%
home_+0.5
37.1%
away_-0.5
62.9%
home_+1.5
59.4%
away_-1.5
40.6%
home_+2.5
78.4%
away_-2.5
21.6%
total_exact
exact_0
4.1%
exact_1
11.3%
exact_2
20.5%
exact_3
22.1%
exact_4
18.2%
exact_5
12.0%
exact_6
6.6%
exact_7plus
5.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
27.5%
draw
35.8%
away
36.8%
total
over_0.5
78.9%
under_0.5
21.1%
over_1.5
46.1%
under_1.5
53.9%
over_2.5
20.5%
under_2.5
79.5%
btts
yes
28.9%
no
71.1%
total_exact
exact_0
21.1%
exact_1
32.8%
exact_2
25.5%
exact_3
13.3%
exact_4plus
7.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
22.5%
draw
33.2%
away
44.3%
total
over_0.5
81.5%
under_0.5
18.5%
over_1.5
50.3%
under_1.5
49.7%
over_2.5
23.9%
under_2.5
76.1%
btts
yes
30.8%
no
69.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
17.6%
H/D
6.0%
H/A
3.8%
D/H
8.0%
D/D
11.9%
D/A
15.8%
A/H
1.6%
A/D
4.5%
A/A
30.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
73.3%
under_7.5
26.7%
over_8.5
61.9%
under_8.5
38.1%
over_9.5
49.8%
under_9.5
50.2%
over_10.5
38.2%
under_10.5
61.8%
over_11.5
28.0%
under_11.5
72.0%
over_12.5
19.5%
under_12.5
80.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
69.0%
under_3.5
31.0%
over_4.5
53.0%
under_4.5
47.0%
over_5.5
37.8%
under_5.5
62.2%
team_away
over_3.5
66.1%
under_3.5
33.9%
over_4.5
49.6%
under_4.5
50.4%
over_5.5
34.5%
under_5.5
65.5%
most
home
46.8%
draw
10.8%
away
42.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
18.8%
away_+3.5
81.2%
home_-1.5
36.3%
away_+1.5
63.7%
home_-0.5
46.8%
away_+0.5
53.2%
home_+0.5
57.6%
away_-0.5
42.4%
home_+1.5
67.8%
away_-1.5
32.2%
home_+3.5
84.1%
away_-3.5
15.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
68.1%
under_22.5
31.9%
over_24.5
56.4%
under_24.5
43.6%
over_26.5
44.5%
under_26.5
55.5%
over_28.5
33.3%
under_28.5
66.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.9%
under_10.5
27.1%
over_12.5
57.0%
under_12.5
43.0%
over_14.5
41.0%
under_14.5
59.0%
team_away
over_10.5
61.8%
under_10.5
38.2%
over_12.5
44.3%
under_12.5
55.7%
over_14.5
29.0%
under_14.5
71.1%
most
home
55.9%
draw
5.9%
away
38.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
32.2%
away_+4.5
67.8%
home_-2.5
43.8%
away_+2.5
56.2%
home_-0.5
55.9%
away_+0.5
44.1%
home_+0.5
61.8%
away_-0.5
38.2%
home_+2.5
72.7%
away_-2.5
27.3%
home_+4.5
81.8%
away_-4.5
18.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
76.4%
under_6.5
23.6%
over_7.5
65.1%
under_7.5
34.9%
over_8.5
53.0%
under_8.5
47.0%
over_9.5
41.1%
under_9.5
58.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
62.2%
under_3.5
37.8%
over_4.5
44.7%
under_4.5
55.3%
over_5.5
29.5%
under_5.5
70.5%
team_away
over_3.5
64.0%
under_3.5
36.0%
over_4.5
46.7%
under_4.5
53.3%
over_5.5
31.3%
under_5.5
68.7%
most
home
42.4%
draw
12.4%
away
45.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
20.9%
away_+2.5
79.1%
home_-0.5
42.4%
away_+0.5
57.6%
home_+0.5
54.8%
away_-0.5
45.2%
home_+2.5
77.0%
away_-2.5
23.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
85.4%
under_2.5
14.6%
over_3.5
70.1%
under_3.5
29.9%
over_4.5
51.8%
under_4.5
48.2%
over_5.5
34.3%
under_5.5
65.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
69.6%
under_1.5
30.4%
over_2.5
43.6%
under_2.5
56.4%
team_away
over_1.5
68.0%
under_1.5
32.1%
over_2.5
41.6%
under_2.5
58.4%
most
home
41.9%
draw
18.8%
away
39.2%
handicap
home_-1.5
25.0%
away_+1.5
75.0%
home_-0.5
41.9%
away_+0.5
58.1%
home_+0.5
60.8%
away_-0.5
39.2%
home_+1.5
77.2%
away_-1.5
22.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
84.8%
under_20.5
15.2%
over_22.5
73.7%
under_22.5
26.3%
over_24.5
60.0%
under_24.5
40.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
85.2%
under_9.5
14.8%
over_11.5
68.8%
under_11.5
31.2%
over_13.5
48.7%
under_13.5
51.3%
team_away
over_9.5
78.1%
under_9.5
21.9%
over_11.5
58.4%
under_11.5
41.7%
over_13.5
37.5%
under_13.5
62.5%
most
home
54.3%
draw
7.2%
away
38.5%
handicap
home_-3.5
32.7%
away_+3.5
67.3%
home_-0.5
54.3%
away_+0.5
45.7%
home_+2.5
74.7%
away_-2.5
25.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
16.7%
no
83.3%
home
yes
10.9%
no
89.1%
away
yes
6.5%
no
93.5%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Fenerbahce