AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
SamsunsporSamsunsporLLLLL
Full time1-2Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:00UK
AmedsporAmedsporDWWDW

Samsunspor 1-2 Amedspor cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined36.2%

Result

Samsunspor1-2Amedspor
10 yellow cardsSamsunspor 5, Amedspor 5
2 red cardsSamsunspor 1, Amedspor 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 63.8% and it landed (10 in the match). We called No at 82.7% and it missed (2 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards63.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Kadir Saglam

Recorded match referee.

Kadir Saglam in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 18 4
Goals 3.44 Not available
Yellow cards 5.67 Not available
Red cards 0.28 Not available
Corners 10.8 Not available
Fouls 28.9 Not available
Both teams scored 78% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 61% Not available
Home wins 28% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Samsunspor vs Amedspor 1-2 3 Yes 10 2 10 31
20 Sep 2026 Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor 8-0 8 No 2 0 14 21
4 Sep 2026 Buyuksehyr vs Galatasaray 2-3 5 Yes 5 1 11 29
17 Aug 2026 Samsunspor vs Goztep 3-3 6 Yes 4 0 12 21
5 Apr 2026 Antalyaspor vs Eyupspor 3-0 3 No 12 1 12 37
17 Mar 2026 Fenerbahce vs Gaziantep 4-1 5 Yes 1 0 18 24
21 Feb 2026 Alanyaspor vs Buyuksehyr 1-2 3 Yes 10 0 8 32
9 Feb 2026 Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 10 31
25 Jan 2026 Gaziantep vs Konyaspor 1-1 2 Yes 9 0 14 31
18 Jan 2026 Genclerbirligi vs Samsunspor 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 10 23

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Samsunspor vs Amedspor. It tips Amedspor for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.3% 18.7%
3.5 cards 63.8% 36.2%
4.5 cards 44.6% 55.4%
5.5 cards 27.8% 72.2%

Who picks up more cards

Samsunspor
36.5%
Level
19.6%
Amedspor
43.9%

Team cards lines

Samsunspor

Over 1.5
61.9%
Over 2.5
34.9%

Amedspor

Over 1.5
66.8%
Over 2.5
40.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Samsunspor's; Amedspor gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Samsunspor line Samsunspor Amedspor
-1.5 20.1% 79.9%
-0.5 36.5% 63.5%
+0.5 56.1% 43.9%
+1.5 74.1% 25.9%

Red card

Any red card17.3%
Samsunspor red card1.9%
Amedspor red card15.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 85.5% 14.5%
22.5 fouls 74.8% 25.2%
24.5 fouls 61.4% 38.6%
SamsunsporSamsunspor

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Samsunspor at home and Amedspor away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AmedsporAmedspor
Statistic
Samsunspor
Amedspor
Yellow cards per game
0.7
3.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.4
2.8

Matches with card data
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 63.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 81.3% for over 2.5 to 27.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.6%. Head to head on cards, Amedspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 19.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Samsunspor over 1.5 cards sits at 61.9% and Amedspor at 66.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.3% (Samsunspor 1.9%, Amedspor 15.7%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

63.8%Over 3.5 cards
17.3%Any red card
43.9%Most cards: Amedspor
61.9%Samsunspor over 1.5 cards
66.8%Amedspor over 1.5 cards
74.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianAmedspor are the pick to collect more cards at 43.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 44.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
SamsunsporSamsunspor

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AmedsporAmedspor
Statistic
Samsunspor
Amedspor
fouls per game
12.0
14.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Samsunspor vs Amedspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 63.8% for Samsunspor vs Amedspor.
Will there be a red card in Samsunspor vs Amedspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Samsunspor vs Amedspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated Amedspor to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Süper LigSamsunspor fixtures and statsAmedspor fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.