Salford 1-0 Fleetwood Town cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Salford1-0Fleetwood Town
We called Over 3.5 at 51.1% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 89.1% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards51.1%
Match referee
The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.
Ross Martin
Recorded match referee.
| Per match | All matches | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 3 |
| Goals | 1.94 | Not available |
| Yellow cards | 3.81 | Not available |
| Red cards | 0.06 | Not available |
| Corners | 10.2 | Not available |
| Fouls | 24.0 | Not available |
| Both teams scored | 44% | Not available |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | Not available |
| Home wins | 44% | Not available |
| Date | Match | Score | Goals | BTTS | Yellow | Red | Corners | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Port Vale vs Grimsby | 1-0 | 1 | No | 2 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Salford vs Fleetwood Town | 1-0 | 1 | No | 2 | 0 | 14 | 13 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Chesterfield vs Gillingham | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Fleetwood Town vs Chesterfield | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 0 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Bromley vs Oldham | 0-0 | 0 | No | 4 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Colchester vs Salford | 0-1 | 1 | No | 5 | 0 | 9 | 30 |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Crewe vs Fleetwood Town | 0-1 | 1 | No | 3 | 0 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 Feb 2026 | Harrogate vs Swindon | 0-1 | 1 | No | 2 | 0 | 16 | 16 |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Cambridge vs Tranmere | 4-2 | 6 | Yes | 5 | 0 | 8 | 25 |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Accrington vs Milton Keynes Dons | 0-2 | 2 | No | 4 | 0 | 5 | 27 |
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Salford vs Fleetwood Town. It tips Fleetwood Town for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Who picks up more cards
SalfordFleetwood TownTeam cards lines
Salford
Fleetwood Town
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Salford's; Fleetwood Town gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Salford line | Salford | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| -0.5 | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| +0.5 | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| +1.5 | 72.0% | 28.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 76.8% | 23.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 48.2% | 51.8% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | I Searle | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Swipe to see all referee stats →
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 51.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.9% for over 2.5 to 17.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. Head to head on cards, Fleetwood Town are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.2%, with a level count at 21.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
By team, Salford over 1.5 cards sits at 48.9% and Fleetwood Town at 61.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.9% (Salford 8.4%, Fleetwood Town 2.7%). Salford’s most frequent referee this season, I Searle, has averaged 1.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Salford have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Fleetwood Town 2.5.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Salford vs Fleetwood Town?
Will there be a red card in Salford vs Fleetwood Town?
Which team will pick up more cards in Salford vs Fleetwood Town?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
