AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Serie A
RomaRomaWDDWD
Full time4-2Tue, 27 Oct 202627/1019:45UK
CagliariCagliariWWDLL

Roma 4-2 Cagliari corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined59.4%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined40.6%

Result

Roma4-2Cagliari

Settled, final score 4-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 9.5 corners40.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Roma.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 62.9% 37.1%
8.5 corners 51.5% 48.5%
9.5 corners 40.6% 59.4%
10.5 corners 30.7% 69.3%
11.5 corners 22.4% 77.6%
12.5 corners 15.8% 84.2%

Who wins the corner count

Roma
59.0%
Level
10.1%
Cagliari
30.9%

Team corners lines

Roma

Over 3.5
68.9%
Over 4.5
54.5%
Over 5.5
40.9%

Cagliari

Over 3.5
48.7%
Over 4.5
33.1%
Over 5.5
21.1%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Roma's; Cagliari gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Roma line Roma Cagliari
-3.5 28.7% 71.4%
-1.5 48.4% 51.6%
-0.5 59.0% 41.0%
+0.5 69.1% 30.9%
RomaRoma

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Roma at home and Cagliari away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CagliariCagliari
Statistic
Roma
Cagliari
Corners won per game at this venue
6.3
3.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
2.3
6.0

First-half corners won per game
2.8
1.4

Second-half corners won per game
3.1
2.3

Matches with more corners than the opponent
62.5%
37.5%

Matches with corner data
8
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 40.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.9% for over 7.5 to 15.8% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.5%. Head to head on corners, Roma are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 59.0%, with a level count at 10.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Roma over 4.5 corners sits at 54.5% and Cagliari at 33.1%. This season Roma have averaged 5.9 corners won a game and Cagliari 3.6.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

40.6%Over 9.5 corners
59.0%Most corners: Roma
54.5%Roma over 4.5 corners
33.1%Cagliari over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 40.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderRoma are the pick to win the corner count at 59.0%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 8.5 corners: over sits at 51.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 8.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
RomaRoma

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CagliariCagliari
Statistic
Roma
Cagliari
corners won per game
5.9
3.6

corners conceded per game
2.5
6.3

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Roma vs Cagliari?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 40.6% for Roma vs Cagliari.
Which team will win the corner count in Roma vs Cagliari?
Before kickoff, the model rated Roma to win the corner count at 59.0%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Roma and Cagliari average this season?
Roma have won 5.9 corners a game this season and Cagliari 3.6.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Corners

AC Milan vs Bologna corners predictionParma vs Udinese corners predictionVenezia vs Inter corners predictionGenoa vs Juventus corners predictionMonza vs Napoli corners predictionFrosinone vs Lecce corners prediction

Corner predictions today

Related

Serie ARoma fixtures and statsCagliari fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.