AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 3 Nov 2026

Süper Lig
RizesporRizesporDLLLD
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1110:30UK
ErzurumsporErzurumsporWDWWL

Rizespor vs Erzurumspor cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rizespor vs Erzurumspor. Slightly more cards are projected for Rizespor for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.8% 24.2%
3.5 cards 56.2% 43.8%
4.5 cards 36.7% 63.3%
5.5 cards 21.1% 78.9%

Who picks up more cards

Rizespor
41.7%
Level
20.7%
Erzurumspor
37.6%

Team cards lines

Rizespor

Over 1.5
60.5%
Over 2.5
33.4%

Erzurumspor

Over 1.5
57.6%
Over 2.5
30.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rizespor's; Erzurumspor gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rizespor line Rizespor Erzurumspor
-1.5 23.3% 76.7%
-0.5 41.7% 58.4%
+0.5 62.4% 37.6%
+1.5 79.8% 20.2%

Red card

Any red card5.5%
Rizespor red card3.6%
Erzurumspor red card2.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 82.1% 17.9%
22.5 fouls 70.1% 29.9%
24.5 fouls 55.8% 44.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Rizespor B. Kolak 2 5.0 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

RizesporRizespor

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Rizespor at home and Erzurumspor away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ErzurumsporErzurumspor
Statistic
Rizespor
Erzurumspor
Yellow cards per game
2.1
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
0.7

Matches with card data
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,078Matches graded

In 11,388 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 3 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 58.7%✓ 56.2%✓ 59.8%✓ 75.9%✗ 61.0%✓ 62.7%✓ 62.4%✗ 57.2%✗ 52.3%✓ 58.0%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Under 3.5 58.7%Miss
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Over 3.5 56.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Over 3.5 59.8%Hit
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Over 3.5 75.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Over 3.5 61.0%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 56.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.8% for over 2.5 to 21.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.2%. Head to head on cards, Rizespor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 20.7%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Rizespor over 1.5 cards sits at 60.5% and Erzurumspor at 57.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.5% (Rizespor 3.6%, Erzurumspor 2.1%). Rizespor’s most frequent referee this season, B. Kolak, has averaged 5.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

56.2%Over 3.5 cards
5.5%Any red card
41.7%Most cards: Rizespor
60.5%Rizespor over 1.5 cards
57.6%Erzurumspor over 1.5 cards
70.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherB. Kolak, Rizespor’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianRizespor are the pick to collect more cards at 41.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
RizesporRizespor

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ErzurumsporErzurumspor
Statistic
Rizespor
Erzurumspor
fouls per game
11.4
12.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Rizespor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.2% for Rizespor vs Erzurumspor.
Will there be a red card in Rizespor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rizespor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates Rizespor to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Süper LigRizespor fixtures and statsErzurumspor fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.