AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 4 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga
Rio AveRio AveDLWLL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1120:30UK
Sp BragaSp BragaDLLLW

Rio Ave vs Sp Braga cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined66.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined33.8%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards66.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rio Ave vs Sp Braga. It tips Rio Ave for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 82.9% 17.1%
3.5 cards 66.2% 33.8%
4.5 cards 47.4% 52.6%
5.5 cards 30.4% 69.6%

Who picks up more cards

Rio Ave
44.1%
Level
19.2%
Sp Braga
36.7%

Team cards lines

Rio Ave

Over 1.5
68.4%
Over 2.5
42.2%

Sp Braga

Over 1.5
63.6%
Over 2.5
36.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rio Ave's; Sp Braga gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rio Ave line Rio Ave Sp Braga
-1.5 26.4% 73.6%
-0.5 44.1% 55.9%
+0.5 63.3% 36.7%
+1.5 79.5% 20.5%

Red card

Any red card21.2%
Rio Ave red card18.4%
Sp Braga red card3.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.8% 22.2%
22.5 fouls 66.2% 33.8%
24.5 fouls 53.2% 46.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Rio Ave C. Macedo 2 2.5 2.0
Rio Ave G. Correia 2 5.0 3.0
Sp Braga D. Silva 2 8.0 2.5
Sp Braga J. Bessa 2 5.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Rio AveRio Ave

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Rio Ave at home and Sp Braga away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Sp BragaSp Braga
Statistic
Rio Ave
Sp Braga
Cards per game at this venue
2.2
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
0.8
3.0

Yellow cards per game
1.9
2.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.3
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
1.3

Matches with more cards than the opponent
40.0%
12.5%

Matches with card data
10
8
Red cards this season
3
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,093Matches graded

In 10,269 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 4 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 55.7%✓ 66.7%✓ 60.8%✓ 59.2%✓ 51.3%✓ 66.0%✗ 69.8%✓ 66.7%✓ 73.4%✗ 74.9%
8 of 10 recent calls hit.
Newcastle vs Everton2026-11-02Over 3.5 55.7%Hit
La Coruna vs Osasuna2026-11-02Over 3.5 66.7%Hit
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina2026-11-02Over 3.5 60.8%Hit
Atalanta vs Parma2026-11-02Under 3.5 59.2%Hit
Lorient vs Brest2026-11-02Under 3.5 51.3%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 66.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 82.9% for over 2.5 to 30.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.4%. Head to head on cards, Rio Ave are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.1%, with a level count at 19.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Rio Ave over 1.5 cards sits at 68.4% and Sp Braga at 63.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.2% (Rio Ave 18.4%, Sp Braga 3.4%). Rio Ave’s most frequent referee this season, C. Macedo, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Rio Ave have averaged 2.2 cards a game and Sp Braga 2.4.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

66.2%Over 3.5 cards
21.2%Any red card
44.1%Most cards: Rio Ave
68.4%Rio Ave over 1.5 cards
63.6%Sp Braga over 1.5 cards
66.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 66.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherC. Macedo, Rio Ave’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.2%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianRio Ave are the pick to collect more cards at 44.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Rio AveRio Ave

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Sp BragaSp Braga
Statistic
Rio Ave
Sp Braga
cards per game
2.2
2.4

fouls per game
10.4
14.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Rio Ave vs Sp Braga?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 66.2% for Rio Ave vs Sp Braga.
Will there be a red card in Rio Ave vs Sp Braga?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rio Ave vs Sp Braga?
The model rates Rio Ave to pick up more cards at 44.1%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Primeira Liga, Cards

Famalicao vs Arouca cards predictionNacional vs Academico Viseu cards predictionAlverca vs Casa Pia cards predictionSporting CP vs Moreirense cards predictionEstoril vs Maritimo cards predictionSanta Clara vs Gil Vicente cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaRio Ave fixtures and statsSp Braga fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.