AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga
EstorilEstorilLLLLL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1115:30UK
MaritimoMaritimoLDLLL

Estoril vs Maritimo cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined64.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35.7%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards64.3%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Estoril vs Maritimo. It tips Estoril for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.6% 18.4%
3.5 cards 64.3% 35.7%
4.5 cards 45.2% 54.8%
5.5 cards 28.3% 71.7%

Who picks up more cards

Estoril
42.3%
Level
19.5%
Maritimo
38.2%

Team cards lines

Estoril

Over 1.5
66.0%
Over 2.5
39.4%

Maritimo

Over 1.5
63.3%
Over 2.5
36.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Estoril's; Maritimo gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Estoril line Estoril Maritimo
-1.5 24.7% 75.3%
-0.5 42.3% 57.7%
+0.5 61.8% 38.2%
+1.5 78.6% 21.5%

Red card

Any red card6.2%
Estoril red card3.9%
Maritimo red card2.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 83.3% 16.7%
22.5 fouls 73.3% 26.7%
24.5 fouls 61.4% 38.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Maritimo Sergio Guelho 2 4.5 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

EstorilEstoril

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Estoril at home and Maritimo away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MaritimoMaritimo
Statistic
Estoril
Maritimo
Cards per game at this venue
2.3
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.5
·

Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
1.0

Matches with card data
5
2
Red cards this season
2
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,078Matches graded

In 10,263 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.6% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 58.7%✓ 56.2%✓ 59.8%✓ 75.9%✗ 61.0%✓ 62.7%✓ 62.4%✗ 57.2%✗ 52.3%✓ 58.0%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Under 3.5 58.7%Miss
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Over 3.5 56.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Over 3.5 59.8%Hit
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Over 3.5 75.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Over 3.5 61.0%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 64.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.6% for over 2.5 to 28.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. On the card count, Estoril are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.3%, with a level count at 19.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Estoril over 1.5 cards sits at 66.0% and Maritimo at 63.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.2% (Estoril 3.9%, Maritimo 2.4%). Maritimo’s most frequent referee this season, Sergio Guelho, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

64.3%Over 3.5 cards
6.2%Any red card
42.3%Most cards: Estoril
66.0%Estoril over 1.5 cards
63.3%Maritimo over 1.5 cards
73.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 64.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherSergio Guelho, Maritimo’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianEstoril are the pick to collect more cards at 42.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
EstorilEstoril

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MaritimoMaritimo
Statistic
Estoril
Maritimo
fouls per game
11.0
16.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Estoril vs Maritimo?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 64.3% for Estoril vs Maritimo.
Will there be a red card in Estoril vs Maritimo?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Estoril vs Maritimo?
The model rates Estoril to pick up more cards at 42.3%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.