ChampionshipQPR vs Preston Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 64.6% for over 22.5 to 28.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. Between the two sides, QPR are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.2%, with a level count at 5.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.2% | 47.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.7% | 71.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
76.6%
61.1%
44.8%
51.4%
33.4%
19.4%
Shot handicap
| QPR line | QPR | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| -2.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| -0.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| +0.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.1% | 63.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
15.0QPR shots per game11.0QPR shots faced per game12.9Preston shots per game13.4Preston shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges QPR.
In-depth analysis
52.2%Over 24.5 shots61.1%QPR over 12.5 shots33.4%Preston over 12.5 shots60.4%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, QPR over 12.5 shots sits at 61.1% and Preston at 33.4%. This season QPR have averaged 15.0 shots a game and Preston 12.9.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in QPR vs Preston?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 52.2% for QPR vs Preston.
Which team will have more shots in QPR vs Preston?
The model rates QPR to take more shots at 66.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
