ChampionshipQPR vs Preston Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 51.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: QPR have averaged 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, Preston 0.8 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 48.2% for over 2.5 and 73.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. QPR have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Preston in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.0% | 8.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.9% | 95.1% |
Team goal lines
79.1%
46.4%
20.8%
64.4%
27.7%
8.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.3% | 87.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.2% | 83.8% |
This season (2026/27)
1.1QPR goals scored per game0.7QPR goals conceded per game42.9%QPR Over 2.5 rate0.7QPR 1st-half goals per game0.9Preston goals scored per game1.9Preston goals conceded per game71.4%Preston Over 2.5 rate0.4Preston 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
51.6%Both Teams to Score48.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 48.2% for three or more goals and 73.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given QPR favoured at 49.1%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans QPR to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: QPR 3 · 2 draws · Preston 0 · 2.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in QPR vs Preston?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 48.2% for QPR vs Preston.
Will there be a first-half goal in QPR vs Preston?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 70.3%.
How often have QPR gone over 2.5 recently?
QPR have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Preston in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
