AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

League Two
OldhamOldhamLDWLD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
Crawley TownCrawley TownLDLLD

Oldham vs Crawley Town cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.9%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

David Rock

Assigned per API-Football, seen 28 Oct 2026, 12:06 UTC. An assignment can change before kickoff.

David Rock in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 92 2
Goals 2.55 Not available
Yellow cards 3.52 Not available
Red cards 0.24 Not available
Corners 10.0 Not available
Fouls 24.3 Not available
Both teams scored 52% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 47% Not available
Home wins 42% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
10 Oct 2026 Cheltenham vs Salford 0-2 2 No 9 1 8 26
26 Sep 2026 Rotherham vs Crewe 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 5 28
2 May 2026 Gillingham vs Shrewsbury 1-0 1 No 3 0 7 24
25 Apr 2026 Newport County vs Oldham 3-2 5 Yes 4 1 10 33
11 Apr 2026 Grimsby vs Crewe 3-2 5 Yes 1 0 7 13
3 Apr 2026 Barnet vs Bromley 2-2 4 Yes 5 1 9 20
17 Mar 2026 Bristol Rvs vs Shrewsbury 1-0 1 No 2 0 3 21
10 Mar 2026 Fleetwood Town vs Cheltenham 2-2 4 Yes 5 0 10 19
17 Feb 2026 Salford vs Newport County 1-3 4 Yes 9 0 10 32
7 Feb 2026 Swindon vs Oldham 3-0 3 No 5 0 7 19

David Rock referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Oldham vs Crawley Town. The model leans toward Crawley Town for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.4% 23.6%
3.5 cards 56.9% 43.1%
4.5 cards 37.4% 62.6%
5.5 cards 21.7% 78.3%

Who picks up more cards

Oldham
29.4%
Level
20.0%
Crawley Town
50.6%

Team cards lines

Oldham

Over 1.5
51.5%
Over 2.5
25.0%

Crawley Town

Over 1.5
66.5%
Over 2.5
40.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Oldham's; Crawley Town gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Oldham line Oldham Crawley Town
-1.5 14.4% 85.6%
-0.5 29.4% 70.6%
+0.5 49.4% 50.6%
+1.5 69.2% 30.8%

Red card

Any red card20.8%
Oldham red card8.7%
Crawley Town red card13.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 75.9% 24.1%
22.5 fouls 62.2% 37.8%
24.5 fouls 47.2% 52.8%
OldhamOldham

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Oldham at home and Crawley Town away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Crawley TownCrawley Town
Statistic
Oldham
Crawley Town
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.0

Yellow cards per game
1.5
2.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.1

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.4

Matches with more cards than the opponent
11.1%
25.0%

Matches with card data
9
8
Red cards this season
1
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 56.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.4% for over 2.5 to 21.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.9%. Head to head on cards, Crawley Town are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.6%, with a level count at 20.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Oldham over 1.5 cards sits at 51.5% and Crawley Town at 66.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.8% (Oldham 8.7%, Crawley Town 13.3%). This season Oldham have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Crawley Town 2.4.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

56.9%Over 3.5 cards
20.8%Any red card
50.6%Most cards: Crawley Town
51.5%Oldham over 1.5 cards
66.5%Crawley Town over 1.5 cards
62.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 20.8%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianCrawley Town are the pick to collect more cards at 50.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 56.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
OldhamOldham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Crawley TownCrawley Town
Statistic
Oldham
Crawley Town
cards per game
1.6
2.4

fouls per game
12.4
10.9

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.9% for Oldham vs Crawley Town.
Will there be a red card in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
The model rates Crawley Town to pick up more cards at 50.6%, with a level count at 20.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoOldham fixtures and statsCrawley Town fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.