AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 16 Oct 2026

League Two
OldhamOldhamDLLLL
Full time0-0Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1012:30UK
AccringtonAccringtonWLDDW

Oldham 0-0 Accrington cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.6%

Result

Oldham0-0Accrington
5 yellow cardsOldham 3, Accrington 2
0 red cardsOldham 0, Accrington 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.4% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 83.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Ben Toner

Recorded match referee.

Ben Toner in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 178 4
Goals 2.40 Not available
Yellow cards 3.56 Not available
Red cards 0.21 Not available
Corners 10.3 Not available
Fouls 24.2 Not available
Both teams scored 50% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 44% Not available
Home wins 38% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
17 Oct 2026 Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rvs 1-0 1 No 5 2 9 30
10 Oct 2026 Oldham vs Accrington 0-0 0 No 5 0 11 24
12 Sep 2026 Crawley Town vs Cheltenham 1-3 4 Yes 6 0 11 24
29 Aug 2026 Port Vale vs Crewe 0-0 0 No 1 0 4 30
2 May 2026 Bristol City vs StokeChampionship 2-0 2 No 4 0 17 20
22 Apr 2026 Birmingham vs PrestonChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 6 20
3 Apr 2026 Charlton vs Bristol CityChampionship 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 10 27
21 Mar 2026 Southampton vs OxfordChampionship 2-0 2 No 3 0 10 21
11 Mar 2026 Norwich vs Sheffield UnitedChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 15 18
28 Feb 2026 Preston vs MillwallChampionship 0-2 2 No 5 0 8 26

Ben Toner referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Oldham vs Accrington. Slightly more cards are projected for Accrington for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.2% 24.8%
3.5 cards 55.4% 44.6%
4.5 cards 35.9% 64.1%
5.5 cards 20.5% 79.5%

Who picks up more cards

Oldham
23.4%
Level
19.1%
Accrington
57.5%

Team cards lines

Oldham

Over 1.5
44.8%
Over 2.5
19.5%

Accrington

Over 1.5
69.6%
Over 2.5
43.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Oldham's; Accrington gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Oldham line Oldham Accrington
-1.5 10.4% 89.6%
-0.5 23.4% 76.6%
+0.5 42.5% 57.5%
+1.5 63.1% 36.9%

Red card

Any red card16.8%
Oldham red card8.1%
Accrington red card9.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.7% 26.3%
22.5 fouls 59.5% 40.5%
24.5 fouls 44.3% 55.7%
OldhamOldham

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Oldham at home and Accrington away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AccringtonAccrington
Statistic
Oldham
Accrington
Cards per game at this venue
1.0
3.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.0
2.0

Yellow cards per game
1.4
2.9

Red cards this season
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.2% for over 2.5 to 20.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.4%. On the card count, Accrington are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 57.5%, with a level count at 19.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Oldham over 1.5 cards sits at 44.8% and Accrington at 69.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.8% (Oldham 8.1%, Accrington 9.5%). This season Oldham have averaged 1.5 cards a game and Accrington 3.0.

55.4%Over 3.5 cards
16.8%Any red card
57.5%Most cards: Accrington
44.8%Oldham over 1.5 cards
69.6%Accrington over 1.5 cards
59.5%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.8%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianAccrington are the pick to collect more cards at 57.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
OldhamOldham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AccringtonAccrington
Statistic
Oldham
Accrington
cards per game
1.5
3.0

fouls per game
12.8
15.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Oldham vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.4% for Oldham vs Accrington.
Will there be a red card in Oldham vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Oldham vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated Accrington to pick up more cards at 57.5%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoOldham fixtures and statsAccrington fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.