AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
NancyNancyLLWWW
Full time1-0Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1019:00UK
LavalLavalLLDLD

Nancy 1-0 Laval cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.4%

Result

Nancy1-0Laval
6 yellow cardsNancy 1, Laval 5
0 red cardsNancy 0, Laval 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.6% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 75.3% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Remi Landry

Recorded match referee.

Remi Landry in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 19 5
Goals 2.11 1.40
Yellow cards 4.05 4.40
Red cards 0.11 0.40
Corners 9.4 6.8
Fouls 30.7 31.4
Both teams scored 58% 40%
Over 2.5 goals 32% 0%
Home wins 32% 60%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Nancy vs Laval 1-0 1 No 6 0 9 31
18 Sep 2026 Reims vs Montpellier 1-1 2 Yes 2 1 9 28
7 Sep 2026 Nantes vs Nancy 1-0 1 No 5 1 5 31
14 Aug 2026 Guingamp vs Boulogne 1-0 1 No 3 0 7 30
8 Aug 2026 Montpellier vs Dijon 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 4 37
9 May 2026 Nancy vs Dunkerque 3-2 5 Yes 2 0 8 18
24 Apr 2026 Amiens vs Montpellier 0-2 2 No 4 0 15 32
3 Apr 2026 Dunkerque vs Rodez 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 9 24
13 Mar 2026 Bastia vs Boulogne 0-1 1 No 4 0 10 41
27 Feb 2026 Montpellier vs Reims 0-0 0 No 1 0 7 35

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nancy vs Laval. Slightly more cards are projected for Laval for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.9% 26.1%
3.5 cards 53.6% 46.4%
4.5 cards 34.2% 65.8%
5.5 cards 19.2% 80.8%

Who picks up more cards

Nancy
30.9%
Level
20.7%
Laval
48.5%

Team cards lines

Nancy

Over 1.5
50.6%
Over 2.5
24.2%

Laval

Over 1.5
63.3%
Over 2.5
36.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Nancy's; Laval gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Nancy line Nancy Laval
-1.5 15.1% 84.9%
-0.5 30.9% 69.2%
+0.5 51.5% 48.5%
+1.5 71.4% 28.6%

Red card

Any red card24.7%
Nancy red card11.6%
Laval red card14.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 93.7% 6.4%
22.5 fouls 87.5% 12.6%
24.5 fouls 78.3% 21.7%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.9% for over 2.5 to 19.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. On the card count, Laval are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 20.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Nancy over 1.5 cards sits at 50.6% and Laval at 63.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.7% (Nancy 11.6%, Laval 14.8%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

53.6%Over 3.5 cards
24.7%Any red card
48.5%Most cards: Laval
50.6%Nancy over 1.5 cards
63.3%Laval over 1.5 cards
87.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 24.7%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianLaval are the pick to collect more cards at 48.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Nancy vs Laval?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.6% for Nancy vs Laval.
Will there be a red card in Nancy vs Laval?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 24.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Nancy vs Laval?
Before kickoff, the model rated Laval to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 2, Cards

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Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 2Nancy fixtures and statsLaval fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.