Primeira Liga
Moreirense vs 
Gil Vicente Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.6% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Moreirense have averaged 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, Gil Vicente 0.8 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 42.9% for over 2.5 and 69.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 11.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
| 2-0 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Moreirense \ Gil Vicente | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 9% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Moreirense goals, columns = Gil Vicente. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
49.0%Both Teams to Score42.9%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 42.9% for three or more goals and 69.7% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Gil Vicente favoured at 40.6%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Moreirense 2 · 0 draws · Gil Vicente 3 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
The model's most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente is 1-1 at 13.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
