Serie A
Milan vs 
Lecce Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 48.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 69.2% for over 2.5 to 16.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. Head to head on cards, Lecce are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 20.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.9% | 83.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.0%
22.2%
59.0%
33.1%
Card handicap
| Milan line | Milan | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| -0.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| +0.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| +1.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 42.3% | 57.7% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Milan vs Lecce. Slightly more cards are projected for Lecce for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
48.7%Over 3.5 cards7.1%Any red card47.0%Milan over 1.5 cards59.0%Lecce over 1.5 cards55.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Milan over 1.5 cards sits at 47.0% and Lecce at 59.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.1% (Milan 4.7%, Lecce 2.6%).
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Milan vs Lecce?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.7% for Milan vs Lecce.
Will there be a red card in Milan vs Lecce?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Milan vs Lecce?
The model rates Lecce to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
