Serie A
Milan vs 
Lecce Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 51.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 63.3% for over 22.5 to 28.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. On the shot count, Milan are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.5%, with a level count at 5.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.9% | 71.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.0%
60.0%
44.5%
50.6%
33.4%
20.1%
Shot handicap
| Milan line | Milan | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| -2.5 | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| -0.5 | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| +0.5 | 71.0% | 29.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.7% | 65.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
7.0 / 6.5
3.5 / 5.5
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Milan.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
51.3%Over 24.5 shots60.0%Milan over 12.5 shots33.4%Lecce over 12.5 shots56.6%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Milan over 12.5 shots sits at 60.0% and Lecce at 33.4%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Milan vs Lecce?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 51.3% for Milan vs Lecce.
Which team will have more shots in Milan vs Lecce?
The model rates Milan to take more shots at 65.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
