Primeira Liga
Maritimo vs 
Benfica Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 67.3% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 85.1% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 67.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.6% for over 2.5 to 31.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.5%. On the card count, Maritimo are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 19.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 67.3% | 32.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.2% | 68.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.2%
43.1%
64.3%
37.4%
Card handicap
| Maritimo line | Maritimo | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| -0.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| +0.5 | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| +1.5 | 79.5% | 20.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.6% | 17.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 59.9% | 40.1% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Maritimo vs Benfica. It tips Maritimo for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
67.3%Over 3.5 cards14.9%Any red card69.2%Maritimo over 1.5 cards64.3%Benfica over 1.5 cards72.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Maritimo over 1.5 cards sits at 69.2% and Benfica at 64.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.9% (Maritimo 10.4%, Benfica 5.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 67.3% for Maritimo vs Benfica.
Will there be a red card in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Before kickoff, the model rated Maritimo to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.